Bitcoin Price Chart (BTC) Coinbase

[Question] Is there an app or a chart that shows how long price of a bitcoin has been above a certain value? (example: Price of bitcoin has been above $800 for a total of X days since 2009)

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[Question] Is there an app or a chart that shows how long price of a bitcoin has been above a certain value? (example: Price of bitcoin has been above $800 for a total of X days since 2009) /r/btc

[Question] Is there an app or a chart that shows how long price of a bitcoin has been above a certain value? (example: Price of bitcoin has been above $800 for a total of X days since 2009) /btc submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Some Basics Of Bitcoin

For someone not familiar with Bitcoin, the first question that comes to mind is, "What is Bitcoin?" And another common question that is often asked relates to the Bitcoin price. It started out a under 10 cents per Bitcoin upon its introduction in early 2009. It has risen steadily since and has hovered around $4000 per Bitcoin recently. So regarding Bitcoin value or the Bitcoin rate this is a most remarkable appreciation of value and has created many, many millionaires over the last eight years.
The Bitcoin market is worldwide and the citizens of China and Japan have been particularly active in its purchase along with other Asian countries. However, recently in Bitcoin news the Chinese government has tried to suppress its activity in that country. That action drove the value of Bitcoin down for a short time but it soon surged back and is now close to its previous value.
The Bitcoin history chart is very interesting. Its creator was an anonymous group of brilliant mathematicians (using the pseudonym Satoski Nakamoto) who designed it in 2008 to be "virtual gold" and released the first Bitcoin software in early 2009 during the height of the USA economic crisis. They knew that to have lasting value, it like gold had to have a finite supply. So in creating it they capped the supply at 21 million Bitcoin.
Bitcoin mining refers to the process by which new Bitcoin is created. With conventional currency, government decides when and where to print and distribute it. With Bitcoin, "miners" use special software to solve complex mathematical problems and are issued a certain number of Bitcoin in return.
A question that then arises is, is Bitcoin mining worth it. The answer is NO for the average person. It takes very sophisticated knowledge and a powerful computer system and this combination of factors makes it unattainable for the masses. This applies even more to bitcoin mining 2017 than in past years.
Many wonder, who accepts Bitcoin? This question gets asked in various ways, what are stores that accept bitcoin, what are websites that accept bitcoins, what are some retailers that accept bitcoin, what are some places that accept bitcoin and where can I spend bitcoin.
More and more companies are beginning to see the value of accepting cryptocurrencies as a valid payment option. Some major companies that do are DISH network, Microsoft, Expedia, Shopify stores, Newegg, Payza, 2Pay4You, and others.Two major holdouts at this time are Walmart and Amazon.
Ethereum is the strongest rival to Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market and many wonder at the question of Bitcoin vs Ethereum. Ethereum was created in mid-2015 and has gained some popularity but still ranks far behind Bitcoin in usage, acceptance and value.
A question that often comes up often relates to Bitcoin scam. This author has a friend who made a purchase from a company that promised 1-2% growth per day. The company website listed no contact information and after a couple months the website simply vanished one day and my friend lost all the money he had invested which was several thousand dollars.
One has to know how to buy Bitcoins, how to purchase Bitcoin or how to buy Bitcoin with credit card in order to get started. Coinbase is a very popular site to do this. Their fee is 3.75% and the buying limit is $10,000 per day. This would probably be the easiest way to buy bitcoins.
Others would like to buy Bitcoin with debit card. Coinbase also provides this service and has clear step by step instructions on how to proceed with either your debit or credit card.
There are those who would like to buy Bitcoin instantly. This can be done at Paxful, Inc. and can be done through W. Union or any credit/debit card.
Other common questions that come up are what is the best way to buy Bitcoins, the best way to get bitcoins or where to buy bitcoins online. The easiest way is probably to purchase it through a digital asset exchange like the previously mentioned Coinbase. Opening an account with them is painless and once you link your bank account with them you can buy and sell Bitcoin quite easily. This is quite likely also the best place to buy Bitcoins.
One must know what a Bitcoin wallet is and how to use it. It is simply the Bitcoin equivalent of a bank account. It allows you to receive Bitcoins, store them and send them to others. What it does is store a collection of Bitcoin privacy keys. Typically it is encrypted with a password or otherwise protected from unauthorized access.
There are several types of digital wallets to choose from. A web wallet allows you to send, receive and store Bitcoin though your web browser. Another type is a desktop wallet and here the wallet software is stored directly on your computer. There are also mobile wallets which are designed for use by a mobile device.
A question that occasionally comes up is that of Bitcoin stock or how to buy Bitcoin stock. By far the most common way to proceed in this area is to buy Bitcoin directly and not its stock.
There is one entity called Bitcoin Investment trust which is an investment fund that is designed to track the market flow of Bitcoin. Some analysts however are calling this a risky way to become involved in this marketplace.
The Bitcoin exchange rate USD is a closely watched benchmark both on a daily basis and long term over the last 8 years since its introduction to the world's financial marketplace. A popular company to receive the most current rate in Bitcoin valuation is XE. They show Bitcoin to USD valuation and also the complete Bitcoin price chart, the Bitcoin value chart and the Bitcoin to USD chart. If you ask, "How much is one Bitcoin?" you will always know from their continuously updated charts.
Similar questions that come up in this area relate to the bitcoin rate history, the bitcoin price chart live, the bitcoin to dollar exchange rate, the bitcoin dollar chart and the bitcoin 5 year chart. The previously mentioned website, xe, is also a good source for answers to these questions.
Regarding Bitcoin cash, ie. to get USD from selling Bitcoin, Bitwol is one company that enables you to do this. WikiHow is another company that will take you through this process.
submitted by shomesrobery to BestBitcoinCasinosa [link] [comments]

Lines of Navigation | Monthly Portfolio Update - July 202

Our little systems have their day;
They have their day and cease to be
- Tennyson, In Memoriam A.H.H.
This is my forty-fourth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Total portfolio value: $1 800 119 (+$34 376 or 1.9%)
Asset allocation
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The portfolio has substantially increased this month, continuing the recovery in portfolio value since March.
The strong portfolio growth of over $34 000, or 1.9 per cent, returns the value of the portfolio close to that achieved at the end of February this year.
[Chart]
This month there was minimal movement in the value of Australian and global equity holdings, There was, however, a significant lift of around 6 per cent in the value of gold exchange traded fund units, as well as a rise in the value of Bitcoin holdings.
These movements have pushed the value of gold holdings to their highest level so far on the entire journey. Their total value has approximately doubled since the original major purchases across 2009 to 2015.
For most of the past year gold has functioned as a portfolio stabiliser, having a negative correlation to movements in Australian equities (of around -0.3 to -0.4). As low and negative bond rates spread across the world, however, the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced, and its potential diversification benefits loom larger.
The fixed income holdings of the portfolio also continued to fall beneath the target allocation, making this question of what represents a defensive (or negatively correlated to equity) asset far from academic.
This steady fall is a function of the slow maturing of Ratesetter loans, which were largely made between 2015 and 2017. Ratesetter has recently advised of important changes to its market operation, and placed a fixed maximum cap on new loan rates. By replacing market set rates with maximum rates, the peer-to-peer lending platform appears to be shifting to more of a 'intermediated' role in which higher past returns (of around 8 to 9 per cent) will now no longer be possible.
[Chart]
The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars.
Consistent with this, investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) using Selfwealth. This has been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
Fathoming out: franking credits and portfolio distributions
Earlier last month I released a summary of portfolio income over the past half year. This, like all before it, noted that the summary was prepared on a purely 'cash' basis, reflecting dividends actually paid into a bank account, and excluding consideration of franking credits.
Franking credits are credits for company tax paid at the company level, which can be passed to individual shareholders, reducing their personal tax liability. They are not cash, but for a personal investor with tax liabilities they can have equivalent value. This means that comparing equity returns to other investments without factoring these credits can produce a distorted picture of an investor's final after-tax return.
In past portfolio summaries I have noted an estimate for franking credits in footnotes, but updating the value for this recently resulted in a curiosity about the overall significance of this neglected element of my equity returns.
This neglect resulted from my perception earlier in the journey that they represented a marginal and abstract factor, which could effectively be assumed away for the sake of simplicity in reporting.
This is not a wholly unfair view, in the sense that income physically received and able to be spent is something definably different in kind than a notional 'pre-payment' credit for future tax costs. Yet, as the saying goes, because the prospect of personal tax is as certain as extinction from this world, in some senses a credit of this kind can be as valuable as a cash distribution.
Restoring the record: trends and drivers of franking credits
To collect a more accurate picture of the trends and drivers of franking credits I relied on a few sources - tax statements, records and the automatic franking credit estimates that the portfolio tracking site Sharesight generates.
The chart below sets out both the level and major different sources of franking credits received over the past eleven years.
[Chart]
From this chart some observations can be made.
The key reason for the rapid growth over the recent decade has been the increased investment holdings in Australian equities. As part of the deliberate rebalancing towards Australian shares across the past two years, these holdings have expanded.
The chart below sets out the total value of Australian shares held over the comparable period.
[Chart]
As an example, at the beginning of this record Australian equities valued at around $276 000 were held. Three years later, the holding were nearly three times larger.
The phase of consistently increasing the Australian equities holding to meet its allocated weighting is largely complete. This means that the period of rapid growth seen in the past few years is unlikely to repeat. Rather, growth will revert to be in proportion to total portfolio growth.
Close to cross-over: the credit card records
One of the most powerful initial motivators to reach financial independence was the concept of the 'cross over' point in Vicki Robins and Joe Dominguez's Your Money or Your Life. This was the point at which monthly expenses are exceeded by investment income.
One of the metrics I have traced is this 'cross-over' point in relation to recorded credit card expenses. And this point is now close indeed.
Expenditures on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. The three year rolling average of monthly credit card spending remains at its lowest point over the period of the journey. Distributions on the same basis now meet over 99 per cent of card expenses - with the gap now the equivalent of less than $50 per month.
[Chart]
The period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent form of financial independence has continued.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the the extent to which to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month.
[Chart]
An alternative way to view the same data is to examine the degree to which total expenses (i.e. fixed payments not made on credit card added to monthly credit card expenses) are met by distributions received.
An updated version of this is seen in the chart below.
[Chart]
Interestingly, on a trend basis, this currently identifies a 'crossing over' point of trend distributions fully meeting total expenditure from around November 2019. This is not conclusive, however, as the trend curve is sensitive to the unusual COVID-19 related observations of the first half of this year, and could easily shift further downward if normal expense patterns resume.
One issue this analysis raises is what to do with the 'credit card purchases' measure reported below. This measure is designed to provide a stylised benchmark of how close the current portfolio is to a target of generating the income required to meet an annual average credit card expenditure of $71 000.
The problem with this is that continued falling credit card spending means that average credit card spending is lower than that benchmark for all time horizons - measured as three and four year averages, or in fact taken as a whole since 2013. So the set benchmark may, if anything, be understating actual progress compared the graphs and data above by not reflecting changing spending levels.
In the past I have addressed this trend by reducing the benchmark. Over coming months, or perhaps at the end of the year, I will need to revisit both the meaning, and method, of setting this measure.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 82.6% 111.5%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 100.7% 136.0%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 80.7% 109.0%
Summary
One of the most challenging aspects of closing in on a fixed numerical target for financial independence with risk assets still in place is that the updrafts and downdrafts of market movements can push the goal further away, or surprisingly close.
There have been long period of the journey where the total value of portfolio has barely grown, despite regular investments being made. As an example, the portfolio ended 2018 lower than it started the year. The past six months have been another such period. This can create a sense of treading water.
Yet amidst the economic devastation affecting real lives and businesses, this is an extremely fortunate position to be in. Australia and the globe are set to experience an economic contraction far more severe than the Global Financial Crisis, with a lesser capacity than previously for interest rates to cushion the impact. Despite similar measures being adopted by governments to address the downturn, it is not clear whether these are fit for purpose.
Asset allocation in this environment - of being almost suspended between two realities - is a difficult problem. The history of markets can tell us that just when assets seem most 'broken', they can produce outsized returns. Yet the problem remains that far from being surrounded by broken markets, the proliferation appears to be in bubble-like conditions.
This recent podcast discussion with the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer provided a useful historical context to current financial conditions this month. One of the themes of the conversation was 'thinking the unthinkable', such as a return of inflation. Similar, this Hoover Institute video discussion, with a 'Back from the future' premise, provides some entertaining, informed and insightful views on the surprising and contingent nature of what we know to be true.
Some of our little systems may well have had their day, but what could replace them remains obscured to any observer.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

08-15 09:34 - 'What is Bitcoin and what is the bitcoin chart?' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Jonescrystal122 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 29-39min

'''
Bitcoin is one of the most famous cryptocurrencies created in 2009.
Bitcoin is a digital asset, not a physical property.
It is protected by mathematical encryption algorithms.
It is the world's first digital currency that allows instant payment.
Currently, one bitcoin is priced at $3,573.36 (at the time of writing).
Bitcoin is known to be the digital currency most favored by crypto supporters.
Bitcoin can also be used as an alternative to national fiat currencies and traditional commodities such as gold.
Bitcoins can be bought on bitcoin exchanges, mined or otherwise earned.

If you pursue the security of investment, you can choose bitcoin, Ethereum and other mainstream currencies with high maturity.
If you can bear high risks and want to pursue high returns, you can consider some new currencies with low maturity and huge space for future growth.
You can start from the market value of the mainstream currency to start their own investment practice.
This kind of mainstream currency, has been widely recognized by the market, consistent application space is large, the currency price is relatively more stable.

Buy the time must grasp well, pay attention to the trend of the market, buy at the right time, investment digital currency also has a certain risk, luck also occupied a large part, pay attention to the overall volatility cycle, in order to choose the right price entry.
Especially for those who focus on long-term value investment, it is very important to choose a reasonable price to buy the time.

What about the Bitcoin chart?
How to analyze the Bitcoin chart?
Bitcoin chart analysis tutorial

  1. Dayang line

Dayang line for a red solid column, the highest price is the closing price, the lowest price is the opening price, the general appearance of dayang line indicates that there will be a wave of prices.

  1. Positive line

The middle line has an upper and lower shadow, which represents pressure and the lower shadow represents support.
The longer the line, the higher the price pressure, on the other hand, the longer line represents the lower support, the price is not easy to go down.

  1. Bald head line

Baldheaded Yang line has no shadow line only, indicating that the lower support is strong, generally indicates a good market in the later period.

  1. Bare feet

Bare feet above the line shadow line, the stock price rise in the process of being short side pressure, a breakthrough pressure.

  1. Small positive line

Small Yang line indicates that both sides of the game to kill a fierce, each other devour, do not give in.

  1. Cross star

The cross star finally closed the opening and closing prices are flat, the future market is not clear, to continue to wait and see.

  1. T-shaped line

There are two types of T-lines, the first indicating a strong air force and the second indicating a positive multilateral uplift.

Through the above introduction, believe everybody for the currency chart analysis tutorial, reminding investors here, whether they believe in technical analysis, it is necessary to understand charts are, exclude technical graphics, indicators, long-short game this issues aside, the currency of the information on the level of prices, volume, etc, can fully reflected in the graph, therefore understand the currency chart can reduce the probability of investors lose everything.
'''
What is Bitcoin and what is the bitcoin chart?
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Author: Jonescrystal122
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08-15 09:34 - 'What is Bitcoin and what is the bitcoin chart?' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Jonescrystal122 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 16-26min

'''
Bitcoin is one of the most famous cryptocurrencies created in 2009.
Bitcoin is a digital asset, not a physical property.
It is protected by mathematical encryption algorithms.
It is the world's first digital currency that allows instant payment.
Currently, one bitcoin is priced at $3,573.36 (at the time of writing).
Bitcoin is known to be the digital currency most favored by crypto supporters.
Bitcoin can also be used as an alternative to national fiat currencies and traditional commodities such as gold.
Bitcoins can be bought on bitcoin exchanges, mined or otherwise earned.

If you pursue the security of investment, you can choose bitcoin, Ethereum and other mainstream currencies with high maturity.
If you can bear high risks and want to pursue high returns, you can consider some new currencies with low maturity and huge space for future growth.
You can start from the market value of the mainstream currency to start their own investment practice.
This kind of mainstream currency, has been widely recognized by the market, consistent application space is large, the currency price is relatively more stable.

Buy the time must grasp well, pay attention to the trend of the market, buy at the right time, investment digital currency also has a certain risk, luck also occupied a large part, pay attention to the overall volatility cycle, in order to choose the right price entry.
Especially for those who focus on long-term value investment, it is very important to choose a reasonable price to buy the time.

What about the Bitcoin chart?
How to analyze the Bitcoin chart?
Bitcoin chart analysis tutorial

  1. Dayang line

Dayang line for a red solid column, the highest price is the closing price, the lowest price is the opening price, the general appearance of dayang line indicates that there will be a wave of prices.

  1. Positive line

The middle line has an upper and lower shadow, which represents pressure and the lower shadow represents support.
The longer the line, the higher the price pressure, on the other hand, the longer line represents the lower support, the price is not easy to go down.

  1. Bald head line

Baldheaded Yang line has no shadow line only, indicating that the lower support is strong, generally indicates a good market in the later period.

  1. Bare feet

Bare feet above the line shadow line, the stock price rise in the process of being short side pressure, a breakthrough pressure.

  1. Small positive line

Small Yang line indicates that both sides of the game to kill a fierce, each other devour, do not give in.

  1. Cross star

The cross star finally closed the opening and closing prices are flat, the future market is not clear, to continue to wait and see.

  1. T-shaped line

There are two types of T-lines, the first indicating a strong air force and the second indicating a positive multilateral uplift.
'''
What is Bitcoin and what is the bitcoin chart?
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Author: Jonescrystal122
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MCS | The Record High Gold Price! What's going to happen to the price of Bitcoin, the digital gold?

MCS | The Record High Gold Price! What's going to happen to the price of Bitcoin, the digital gold?

\This post has been written by Hedgehog, an MCS influencer and one of Korea's famous cryptocurrency key opinion leaders.*

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#Be_a_Trader!

Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.

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For the first time in history, the world gold price has topped $2,000 an ounce. Quantitative easing in major countries has brought astronomical amounts into the financial markets. In addition, Nasdaq is also setting a new high in anticipation of further economic stimulus agreements in the US this week.
Financial experts cite the followings for the main causes of the recent gold rally.
👉 First, experts analyze this intensification of the gold rally was caused by the stuttered US dollar rebound and the lowered US Treasury yield. In particular, as the US government's discussion on further economic stimulus measures to alleviate the global economic damage caused by COVID-19 from Wuhan, China is expected to come to an agreement this week, many speculate that this will lead to a drop in dollar value. Although the White House, Republicans, and Democrats have yet to narrow their views on additional stimulus measures prolonging the negotiation, it is very likely that the release of more dollars in the market, in the sense that everyone agrees on the need for additional stimulus, will relatively increase the value of gold.
👉 Second, some say that “the central banks in many countries will continue to buy gold to promote gold prices” referring to cases where central banks' buying of gold increased their gold prices during the 2009 global financial crisis.

"How high will the gold price go❓ "
Most experts believe that the gold price is still far from its limit. Especially, the Goldman Sachs Group is looking at $2,300 an ounce, Bank of America from $2,500 an ounce to up to $3,000 an ounce, and RBC Capital Market $3,000 an ounce.

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The price of Bitcoin, also known as a safe digital asset, also remains in the $11,100 to $11,300 range ever since it recently broke the highest point of $12,000.

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Bitcoin, the No. 1 market capitalization among cryptocurrencies, has a market capitalization of approximately 200 billion USD as of August 5, 2020. This is more than the global stock valuations of Intel and Coca-Cola.

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A cryptocurrency media outlet, CoinDesk recently said that "Bitcoin recently hit a market high of $11,480, but there was a sign of buyer (buying force) fatigue in the technology chart. If the price falls below $11,000, it could retreat back to, before resistance now support, $10,500 (the highest point in February). However, if Bitcoin continues to settle above $11,400 on the time chart, it is highly likely that the rally will go above the latest high beyond $12,000".
I believe now that the value of gold, a famous safe asset, is the highest ever as the U.S. government has tentatively agreed to invest an additional $1 trillion in economic stimulus, the Bitcoin is also preparing to its rally again. I also think that since it is the post-halving period with the good news waiting in line including the Ethereum 2.0, we have enough momentum to rally more than $20,000 by the end of the year.

💡 "Nothing is permanent in this wicked world - not even our troubles." - Charlie Chaplin
All financial assets, including Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency leader, cannot be bullish forever. In the long run, they can gradually rise by stepping up the lowest price point, but there are a lot of ups and downs along the way. MCS traders can enjoy a bull market while preparing for a bear market on the one hand.

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On UPbit and Bithumb, the major cryptocurrency exchanges in Korea, one can profit in a bull market, but it is very difficult to realize profits in a bear market, nless you are a master of flipping,. As a result, many cryptocurrency traders will turn their attention to cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges in bear markets.
After a successful launch of the Bitcoin perpetual contract product, the trading market on MCS is vigorously moving. The perpetual contract, one of Bitcoin derivatives, can short sell (betting on price drop) in the bear market, making it easy to profit even if the full-fledged bear market starts. In addition, even in today's bull market, you can take long positions (betting on rising prices), and you can use leverage to amplify your investment beyond the assets managed you own, enabling very effective Bitcoin trading.
*If you use leverage, the risk is significantly higher, so please be cautious of the risk and trade safely.
I hope this post helped you to understand the pros and cons of Bitcoin perpetual contract better, and I really wish that you realize your financial freedom on MCS, a cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform!!
I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post.

Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS.
Thank you.

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MCS Official Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official
MCS Telegram Chat (EN): https://t.me/mycoinstory_EN
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Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

If you hodl or trade, you`re the biggest problem with the world of cryptocurrencies.

There`s 3 components to a market economy: Spending, Savings & Investments. We only have 2 and those are way off balance.
Spending: Payments. Drives Inclusion & Adoption. Represents the primary bridge to real world assets.
Saving: Store of Value, Essential driver for stability. The ideea that your holdings are safe over time and don`t depreciate.
Investments: Trading, drives value of the economy, corrects inflation.
State of the nation:
IF there`s any chance at adoption, don`t just HODL. Don`t just DayTrade. Spend what you have. Money needs to move.
The moment you start spending a portion of cryptocurrencies, that money moves. The entire supply chain benefits. Miners Mine, Exchangers Exchange, Businesses get paid, Taxes get taxed. The underlying value of your holdings grows as you tell more people how you paid your AliBaba supplier in Bitcoin and didn`t have any trouble with your EU based bank making a fuss over "why you`re sending money to Asia".
If the only thing you do with Crypto is to buy it, hold it or trade it, it has no impact on real life. It`s not inviting more people to use it. Demand doesn`t grow. the value chain remains closed and non-inclusive. And it`s against the basic principles of Blockchain. You, the person who only has 10 USD in Dogecoin or the Hodler who has 8 bitcoins since Satoshi was in diapers, you`re responsible for the value of your assets and growth of your community. If you don`t SPEND it, people around you have NO reason to adopt. And if they do adopt, they do it for the wrong reasons and simply add to the volatility.
Introduction:
I`ve been in this space since 2009, reading all I could get my hands on. Coming from a poorly banked background and still having frustrations due to the inability of making online purchases at the time, just coming out of a recession, Bitcoin`s vision struck a nerve with me. I`ve been an avid believer in blockchain ever since and at no point did I buy crypto to store value, hedge my bets, invest, digital gold or any of this. I went in because it was, and still is: the easiest way to send money across the world. Ethereum`s smart contracts bring this simple function to a new level, introducing conditions to be met for the transfer itself. Simple, open, transparent, inclusive. Period.
What we`ve become, as a community:
As a whole, this community went from a group of passionate people who wanted an alternative to banks, government and politics, people who wanted to deal directly with other people, to something weird I can`t describe as a whole, but more as personas. Here`s what I`m seeing:
  1. The "I wanna buy Pizza with Bitcoin" crowd. I`m one of them. We just wanted a simple alternative, we were okay with volatility because we always knew the more people use it, more stable it gets as an alternative currency. Conspiracy theorists, tech geeks, scientists, curious people fascinated by the endless possibilities of a global, open banking system, built by the people, for the people. Joined from the first 3-4 years of Bitcoin, many still join it.
  2. The Hodlers: Also coined as the true "Believers". They`re responsible for the initial traction, and would rather liquidate their house than to "sell off" their Bitcoins. They see Bitcoin and other currencies as a "store of value" and see not much difference between buying/storing Gold and Crypto. Joined after the first group and peacefully co-existed with everybody so far. Most dedicated miners came from this group/generation of adopters.
  3. The Traders: People coming from the finance world. They either did Hedgefunds, Forex, VC. Smart opportunists that saw the first 2 groups, saw the potential value of the system as something to be gained from (nothing wrong with this) and heavily capitalize on it. These were the first guys to look at crypto as financial instruments and started fighting the compliance game. This is also where market manipulation started.
  4. The "Tokenize the world" generation. Driven by technology on one side, by the ICO madness on the other side, this opportunistic group wanted to create a token (and respective ICOs) for everything they could think of. Huge similarities between how everything needed a website in the 2000`s, everything needed an app in 2010, everything needed a coin/token started around 2016. Dogecoin is the perfect example of a joke that got way out of proportion, while the original ideea was to make fun of this particular group. Oh well, this group still garners a lot of traction/interest. This group is why we have 3000 shitcoins and who knows how many that never saw the light of day.
  5. The Consultants, Gurus, Ninjas. The "know it all`s". They`re all about the TREND, not about the substance. In the 90`s we had the "internet consultants" who were selling strategies for people to get online. Later the same people were selling strategies to get website traffic. Later, it was about the apps or about the cloud. Right now, it`s about blockchain, token economics, go to market, liquidity, or investing. Some are super smart, most are useless. The only thing that really bothers me is that consultants take no ownership in the success or failure of what they`re selling. As long as you cover their fees, they don`t care if their advice works or not and usually blame you for failing. These are the "market makers" of today, the youtube/facebook/twitteinstagram investment gurus who look at charts for 4 hours and make predictions without really having any skin in the game. Here`s what I never got my head around, if you know how to make a market for a coin, or really know how to invest in crypto.... WHY would you charge me 20k when you can make millions for yourself in less time than that? I guess it holds true: those that can, DO, those that can`t, Teach.
This brings us to the state of the market today.
Proposed solution:
Don`t wait for your government to regulate, don`t wait for banks or institutional investors to kick in, don`t wait for the media frenzy. Just do your part: spend, save and invest your crypto just as you would your USD/Euro/Yen/etc. If you`re a freelancer, accept crypto payments. if you run a business, accept crypto payments. If you have crypto, make crypto payments. This is the main reason we have crypto today and it`s exactly what we don`t use it for. Go back to basics and let`s see how influenced by "market volatility" or "market manipulation" or "media bias" the price will get.
Disclosure: Yes, trying to solve the adoption issue has led me to build a platform for e-commerce that also solves crypto-to-fiat payments for more than 2000 tokens. We walk the walk, not talk the talk.
I`d love to hear if you guys agree or disagree, and most importantly, Why?
C:\>
P.S. I love you
submitted by chrisorasanusdk to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Don't sell your XLM

Don't sell your XLM
The coronavirus epidemic is on everyone’s mind right now — together with the losses in the crypto market. But even though the situation isn’t looking good right now, we are pretty certain that the crisis in the crypto market will pass. The price of XLM will grow again, so don’t sell your coins!
Do you remember what happened in the crypto market when the virus outbreak started in China? Bitcoin price skyrocketed to $10,000. People said that the virus is good for Bitcoin. The idea was that investors would sell their stocks and buy Bitcoin to protect their wealth.
Fast-forward a couple of months, and we’re living in a different world. In the past couple of weeks, Bitcoin lost half of its value. Sure, it happened before, but never so fast and never by so much is USD equivalent. With over $4000 off the price in a week, billions of dollars were wiped out. And it’s not just a big sell-off — some say that institutional investors are offloading their BTC in panic.
Stellar followed suit, unfortunately. The chart has been in the red for days. But does this mean you should sell? No. Here are 3 reasons why the price of Stellar will rise again, and quite soon.
1) Fundamentally crypto isn’t really tied to real-world assets. Analysts proved this using data for the past 10 years, since the era of crypto began. There is no long-term correlation between the price of BTC and other digital currencies and the price of oil. Stocks, gold and so on. What we are seeing now is simply panic, human emotions.
XLM and other coins can react to events in the world for a short while, but they don’t follow the same trends, even in the mid-term. When Bitcoin halving comes in May, it will be more important than the virus.
2) China is reopening for business. As you know, most of global crypto mining is concentrated in China. Of course, Stellar isn’t mined, but it’s sensitive to the market as a whole, and to the price of Bitcoin. And Bitcoin is mined — mostly in China. A couple of months ago we were worried that Chinese mining farms would close, that ASIC chip manufacturers would close etc. But now the epidemic in China is over, companies are reopening, people are starting to go to work. This means that the crypto mining industry is also safe.
3) There will be a boom once the outbreak is over. After each huge crisis, there is explosive growth. It happened after the swine flu in 2009, and it will likely happen this time. Western countries are taking very drastic measures to contain the virus, and these measures are working. So don’t believe people who say that everyone is going to day. The emergency might last several months, but when it’s over, the crypto market will explode in a good way. Stellar has a particularly strong potential for growth, because it was quite cheap even before the epidemic.
What’s the bottom line? Don’t sell your XLM. Keep them in our XLMwallet and simply wait.
Remember that XLMwallet is the best place to store your Stellar, because you can:
- Send XLM to email addresses;
- Launch your own assets and ICOs;
- Easily merge Stellar accounts;
- Open new accounts right inside the wallet;
- Get balance updates on any device;
- Manage multiple accounts…
…and more!
Next time we’ll remind you about the advantages of the wallet in more detail. For now, stay safe, don’t panic and hold on to your crypto!

https://xlmwallet.co/
submitted by Stellar__wallet to XLM_wallet [link] [comments]

Is it a good time to buy bitcoin and any crypto currencies now?

If you are thinking about the current Bitcoin market conditions and want to buy Bitcoin then it is completely in your hands. This is because if you are a Bitcoin believer then you can just go ahead and do it.
Before buying always compare the price its value before and at the present and then complete analysis of weekly, monthly and daily charts.
Top 5 points to consider before you buy Bitcoin:
submitted by alifkhalil469 to BtcNewz [link] [comments]

Setting of the Sails - Role of Gold and Bitcoin in the FIRE Portfolio

One ship drives east and another drives west With the self-same winds that blow. ‘Tis the set of the sails And not the gales Which tells us the way to go.
Future returns are unknowable with any degree of precision. A portfolio must contend with all that future market prices and developments put before it, whilst seeking to earn the best possible return for the level of risk assumed.
This uncertainty is a core issue for portfolio design. Part of my approach to building my FIRE portfolio has been to target a small allocation to alternatives such as gold and Bitcoin to deliver reduced portfolio volatility, and improved returns. My current target allocation set earlier this year is 7.5 per cent gold and 2.5 per cent Bitcoin. This post explores the reasons for, and basis of, this approach.
Portfolio design - one wind, different directions
In designing the FIRE portfolio, the key guiding principle has been maximising the overall risk-adjusted return, whilst minimising unnecessary volatility.
The important implication of this is that it is not the performance of the individual portfolio parts that I am trying to maximise. Rather, it is the performance of all of the component parts as they interact that is of prime concern.
The objective is for the mix of all of these different holdings to play their part together to enhance portfolio returns or reduce volatility. Decisions on asset allocation - or the mix of assets held - has been repeatedly been shown in academic studies to explain around 90 per cent of the volatility of portfolio returns.
This approach is consistent with the simple guidance to diversify. Underlying it, however, are some observations of modern portfolio theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model, that can be summarised in the following insights:
At any given time this can mean that one 'wind' will send the individual portfolio components in different directions. In short, the approach is not one that will deliver a portfolio without any losses or low returns in the set of assets held at any given time.
Asset correlation - assessing the crosswinds
The critical ingredients for the approach to be effective are assets that do not move together - that is, uncorrelated assets. A traditional example used in portfolio design are equities and bonds, which have over time often tended to move in opposite directions (e.g. be inversely correlated) in many markets. This is the basis for traditional investment guidance to include greater bond holdings to dampen the volatility of equities.
Gold has tended to have a low correlation to other asset classes. An example of the effects of this on equity portfolios is described in this research paper (pdf) - from the World Gold Council - which found that adding gold holdings to an all equity portfolio both lowered the volatility of returns and increased total returns over the 1968-1996 period (see p.47 and Figure 4.6). The academic evidence for the low correlation of gold to equity returns is, in fact, strong over multiple periods.
Moreover, this diversification benefit appears when most needed. As this recent paper in the International Review of Financial Analysis notes:
…we think that a review of the results from earlier papers on this issue, coupled with our findings, points to the fact that gold is always a hedge or, at worst, always an excellent diversifier of portfolio risk. Gold’s usefulness in managing risk does not disappear in a crisis when the prices of the vast majority of assets tend to be perfectly correlated. (He, 2018)
That is, gold seems to generally hold up as providing non-correlated returns, even when extreme market conditions prevail. Globally, central banks - including Australia's Reserve Bank - also seem to recognise this characteristic. It is in part why central banks collectively own around 17 per cent of gold currently above ground.
Setting the level of gold exposure - competing evidence
There is considerable discussion and debate on the right level of gold holdings to maximise the diversification benefit, and few definitive answers.
The optimum level will vary under most estimation approaches, which inevitably are based on models that build on historical observed relationships and correlations. These correlations themselves vary over time and between markets and countries.
An original study by Jaffe for institutional portfolio managers recommended a 10 per cent allocation against a basket of international equities. Additional studies (pdf) by other authors have recommended 9.5 per cent, and between 0.1 per cent to 12 per cent depending on which country the investor is in. As an example, the country-specific weights typically fell within 3 to 8 per cent for developed countries.
More complex methods than classical mean variance analysis, which take into account the positive skew of gold returns, produce different results again. A 2006 study which examined 1988-2003 data recommended a holding of 4-6 per cent under classical portfolio optimisation approaches, but a lower figure of 2-4 per cent taking return 'skewness' into account.
Diversification and Bitcoin - looking at the record
My purchase of Bitcoin began as an exploration of a new financial technology driven by curiosity. The present question is, however, does it deliver any additional diversification benefits beyond gold holdings?
Conceptually, Bitcoin can be said to share some characteristics with gold that might be expected to reduce any diversification benefit. They both represent highly liquid assets that when held personally are no other parties liability. They are not issued by central banks or other monetary authorities, and they can be transferred. So is there a case for holding just one or the other?
The tentative answer is that despite some conceptual similarities, they do appear to behave differently.
So far, in the decade between July 2009 and February 2019, Bitcoin has shown a low positive correlation to gold (see In Gold We Trust (pdf), p.245). This is consistent with my own observations in my portfolio in the last three and a half year period, with a low correlation of 0.1 over the entire period in the chart below.
[Chart]
On its face it appears Bitcoin may well be a useful complementary alternative holding, offering diversification benefits distinct from other combinations of holdings.
Unlike gold, there is not a clear empirical or academic basis for setting a 'right' level of exposure to Bitcoin. The recent In Gold We Trust report (pdf) discusses and analyses one possible approach - a 70/30 split between gold and Bitcoin, indicating that this delivered similar maximum drawdowns to a gold only portfolio, but with higher returns. Yet this finding is only a function of the extraordinary positive returns from Bitcoin to date, and may not be repeated.
Trade-offs, risks and limits of exposure to alternatives
There are acknowledged trade-offs and risks to investing in alternatives such as gold and Bitcoin.
First, they produce no income or cashflow. Their return is based entirely on capital gains. This is often cited as a definitive proof that they do not represent part of any proper investment portfolio.
Yet, as a part of a portfolio, alternatives can reduce the absolute volatility of the capital value of the portfolio, and - historically in the case of gold, can also increase overall returns. Given final capital value and returns over time are critical inputs into FI, these characteristics are relevant and worth considering.
A potentially stronger objection is that while alternatives may have been useful in the past, they cannot be guaranteed to be so in the future.
That is, the correlations and diversification benefit that has been observed, may disappear. This is entirely possible, and ultimately unknowable. The diversification benefits of gold have a far longer history. Its roles in industry, manufacturing and jewellery would seem likely to continue to guarantee that at any given time there will be some minimum demand for gold, and a relationship between its price and other asset prices that is not perfectly correlated.
For Bitcoin, the same cannot be said. There are many plausible scenarios in which Bitcoin's value declines, it falls in usage, and becomes the equivalent of niche digital collectible with little residual value.
The disappearance or long-term reversal of 'known truths' in finance is not impossible. There are significant periods in capital markets in which bonds outperformed equities, negative yielding debt has moved from something previously unobserved, to a commonplace across many world bond markets. By some measures, global interest rates are at 5 000 year lows. Few developments should be dismissed as inconceivable looking forward.
This suggests that any analysis based on historical trends should be relied on with modest expectations around its accuracy. Yet importantly, this applies not just to speculation around the role and benefits of alternatives. It also applies to traditional investment classes, such as equities or bonds.
For example, the continuation of a positive equity premium for Australia, or any other nation, is not foreordained. Australia's comparatively high equity returns are in fact an anomaly looking across developed countries (see Table 2 and 3, here (pdf)). There are no particularly strong reasons to suggest this will necessarily continue.
Set of the sails - applying the evidence to a FIRE portfolio
The role of gold and Bitcoin are primarily as non-correlated financial instruments for diversification, and as an insurance against extreme capital market events. No actual positive return is assumed for either asset. The evidence discussed above leads me to the following conclusions, for my personal circumstances and risk tolerance.
The alternatives target allocation set earlier this year is 7.5 per cent gold and 2.5 per cent Bitcoin. As of July 2019, a strict reading of these targets suggests I need to moderately lift my exposure to gold, and sell approximately 75 per cent of my Bitcoin holding.
I currently plan to do neither of these things. This is because:
So the sails are set, and the wind will come. These settings allow me to feel that whatever direction they happen to blow, there is the best chance possible based on evidence that they will help in the journey that remains.
The post, source citations and full charts can be viewed here.
Disclaimer: This article does not provide advice and is not a recommendations to invest in either gold, Bitcoin or any alternative assets. It's sole purpose is to provide an explanation of why - in my personal circumstances - I have chosen this exposure.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

PHP Script Casino Management System Online Casino Full Feature

[ Removed by reddit in response to a copyright notice. ]
submitted by Champion01 to u/Champion01 [link] [comments]

If you just hodl or trade, you`re the biggest problem with the world of cryptocurrencies.

TL;DR: There`s 3 components to a market economy: Spending, Savings & Investments. We only have 2 and those are way off balance.
Spending: Payments. Drives Inclusion & Adoption. Represents the primary bridge to real world assets.
Saving: Store of Value, Essential driver for stability. The ideea that your holdings are safe over time and don`t depreciate.
Investments: Trading, drives value of the economy, corrects inflation.
State of the nation:
IF there`s any chance at adoption, don`t just HODL. Don`t just DayTrade. Spend what you have. Money needs to move.
The moment you start spending a portion of cryptocurrencies, that money moves. The entire supply chain benefits. Miners Mine, Exchangers Exchange, Businesses get paid, Taxes get taxed. The underlying value of your holdings grows as you tell more people how you paid your AliBaba supplier in Bitcoin and didn`t have any trouble with your EU based bank making a fuss over "why you`re sending money to Asia".
If the only thing you do with Crypto is to buy it, hold it or trade it, it has no impact on real life. It`s not inviting more people to use it. Demand doesn`t grow. the value chain remains closed and non-inclusive. And it`s against the basic principles of Blockchain. You, the person who only has 10 USD in Dogecoin or the Hodler who has 8 bitcoins since Satoshi was in diapers, you`re responsible for the value of your assets and growth of your community. If you don`t SPEND it, people around you have NO reason to adopt. And if they do adopt, they do it for the wrong reasons and simply add to the volatility.
Introduction:
I`ve been in this space since 2009, reading all I could get my hands on. Coming from a poorly banked background and still having frustrations due to the inability of making online purchases at the time, just coming out of a recession, Bitcoin`s vision struck a nerve with me. I`ve been an avid believer in blockchain ever since and at no point did I buy crypto to store value, hedge my bets, invest, digital gold or any of this. I went in because it was, and still is: the easiest way to send money across the world. Ethereum`s smart contracts bring this simple function to a new level, introducing conditions to be met for the transfer itself. Simple, open, transparent, inclusive. Period.
What we`ve become, as a community:
As a whole, this community went from a group of passionate people who wanted an alternative to banks, government and politics, people who wanted to deal directly with other people, to something weird I can`t describe as a whole, but more as personas. Here`s what I`m seeing:
  1. The "I wanna buy Pizza with Bitcoin" crowd. I`m one of them. We just wanted a simple alternative, we were okay with volatility because we always knew the more people use it, more stable it gets as an alternative currency. Conspiracy theorists, tech geeks, scientists, curious people fascinated by the endless possibilities of a global, open banking system, built by the people, for the people. Joined from the first 3-4 years of Bitcoin, many still join it.
  2. The Hodlers: Also coined as the true "Believers". They`re responsible for the initial traction, and would rather liquidate their house than to "sell off" their Bitcoins. They see Bitcoin and other currencies as a "store of value" and see not much difference between buying/storing Gold and Crypto. Joined after the first group and peacefully co-existed with everybody so far. Most dedicated miners came from this group/generation of adopters.
  3. The Traders: People coming from the finance world. They either did Hedgefunds, Forex, VC. Smart opportunists that saw the first 2 groups, saw the potential value of the system as something to be gained from (nothing wrong with this) and heavily capitalize on it. These were the first guys to look at crypto as financial instruments and started fighting the compliance game. This is also where market manipulation started.
  4. The "Tokenize the world" generation. Driven by technology on one side, by the ICO madness on the other side, this opportunistic group wanted to create a token (and respective ICOs) for everything they could think of. Huge similarities between how everything needed a website in the 2000`s, everything needed an app in 2010, everything needed a coin/token started around 2016. Dogecoin is the perfect example of a joke that got way out of proportion, while the original ideea was to make fun of this particular group. Oh well, this group still garners a lot of traction/interest. This group is why we have 3000 secondary coins and who knows how many that never saw the light of day.
  5. The Consultants, Gurus, Ninjas. The "know it all`s". They`re all about the TREND, not about the substance. In the 90`s we had the "internet consultants" who were selling strategies for people to get online. Later the same people were selling strategies to get website traffic. Later, it was about the apps or about the cloud. Right now, it`s about blockchain, token economics, go to market, liquidity, or investing. Some are super smart, most are useless. The only thing that really bothers me is that consultants take no ownership in the success or failure of what they`re selling. As long as you cover their fees, they don`t care if their advice works or not and usually blame you for failing. These are the "market makers" of today, the youtube/facebook/twitteinstagram investment gurus who look at charts for 4 hours and make predictions without really having any skin in the game. Here`s what I never got my head around, if you know how to make a market for a coin, or really know how to invest in crypto.... WHY would you charge me 20k when you can make millions for yourself in less time than that? I guess it holds true: those that can, DO, those that can`t, Teach.
This brings us to the state of the market today.
Proposed solution:
Don`t wait for your government to regulate, don`t wait for banks or institutional investors to kick in, don`t wait for the media frenzy. Just do your part: spend, save and invest your crypto just as you would your USD/Euro/Yen/etc. If you`re a freelancer, accept crypto payments. if you run a business, accept crypto payments. If you have crypto, make crypto payments. This is the main reason we have crypto today and it`s exactly what we don`t use it for. Go back to basics and let`s see how influenced by "market volatility" or "market manipulation" or "media bias" the price will get.
Disclosure: Yes, trying to solve the adoption issue has led me to build a platform for e-commerce that also solves crypto-to-fiat payments for more than 2000 tokens. We walk the walk, not talk the talk.
I`d love to hear if you guys agree or disagree, and most importantly, Why?
C:\>
P.S. I love you
submitted by chrisorasanusdk to ethtrader [link] [comments]

A Lost Gem In A Sea Of Shitcoins

What’s up everyone!
 
Yeah, it’s another one of “those”. But honestly, after being in the game for long enough, you end up developing an eye for the good coins. Not the “good” ones, the GOOD ones. Believe it or not, research and common sense is the name of the game!
 
A little bit more about me: I come from a business & logistics management background. I started investing in cryptocurrencies and trading a little more than six months ago. As a person, I am very detail oriented and I’ve been researching all kinds of cryptos, for hours a day, for the past six months. The more I researched, the more I learned, the more I became hungry for knowledge, and therefore the more i researched. From trading to cryptocurrency basics, their economics, their political implications, the technology revolution they represent, the human psychology aspect as well as emotional trading behaviours (FOMO, FODO, etc.), all of it!
 
I’ve purchased Ethereum at 150$ (when I first started in crypto). Then NEO back when it was still AntShares and trading under 3$. Gas (Antcoin back then) at 30c, OMG when it was sub-1$, and ETP at exactly a dollar (selling it later at 5$). This was all before I even knew how to do a basic margin trade & was still in the process of learning about crypto (and while tether still had a “reasonable” market cap! LOL)
 
My approach is pretty simple when it comes to crypto. I split coins into seven main categories:
 
-Store of Value (BTC)
-Payment (DASH, BCH, LTC)
-Pure Anonymity and/or Evil Stuff (XMR)
-Platform/platform’ish (ETH, NEO, LISK, CARDANO, ETP, Iota, Factom and the likes)
-Shitcoins (99% of ERC20 tokens)
-Absolute Shitcoins (Boolberry, Embercoin et al.)
-Fee Split / Dividend Coins
 
That last category is my favorite. While I do strongly believe in diversification (10% store of value, 10% payment, 5% anonymity, 25% platform in my case), I always have a “lean” towards coins that make business sense. Coins that derive their value directly from the amount of usage the platform gets (Factom, for example). Coins such as NEO, BNB, Kucoin, Coss, ICN, TenX and the likes, basically coins that either have a direct “dividend-paying” property (NEO generating gas, Kucoin/Coss awarding holders with a % of the exchange’s trading fees) or an indirect “dividend paying” property such as BNB, ICN, TenX using quarterly profits to buy back their own coins and burn them, thus raising the value of the rest of the coins in circulation over time.
 
Now let’s look at market caps of these direct and indirect “dividend” coins.
 
Neo: 2.3B
TenX: 246M
Binance: 200M
Iconomi: 155M
Kucoin: 44M (68M at ath, not too long ago)
Coss: 5M
 
You see that odd one there with only 5M market cap? Yeah. That’s the great buy right now. That’s the x10, x20 or even x30 that most people haven’t realized yet. That’s also the “dividend coin” you can scoop a ton of while it’s on the cheap, and make massive recurring revenue from as the exchange solidifies and evolves.
 
What is COSS? COSS stands for Crypto One Stop Solution. They’re a Singapore based cryptocurrency exchange with an amazing team that’s currently expanding. They aim at becoming the “One Stop” solution for crypto, meaning A) an exchange, B) a payment gateway for merchants to accept crypto payments, and probably sometime in the future C) crypto debit/credit cards. They offer their own coin (COSS coin), and holders of this coin receive 50% of the trading fees generated by the exchange (more on this later).
 
Now, what a lot of people still don’t realize in crypto, you don’t invest in the bigger market cap coins expecting to make a killing (“the moonshot”). Sure, they’ll bring you nice long term growth as the whole market matures, and that’s where you want to diversify and solidify your portfolio, solid coins with a purpose. But what if you want more thrill? An actual opportunity to “moon”? You find a project that makes business sense, that has at least a working product, and a good team. Buying NEO at 2.5B market cap? You missed the boat, it was a dollar a few months ago and already went x60 (“mooned”), and now stabilized at roughly x38. OMG had it’s x10-15 already. BNB as well. Their market caps are big, and a lot of buying needs to happen to even double in price.
 
Antshares (NEO) back then was a steal at 1, 2 and 3$. It was a huge risk, with huge rewards. They didn’t even have a product other than their blockchain. No dApp running or even being built on it, no english resources to even figure out how to code on it and deploy a smart contract, no marketing, hell we didn’t even know if Da Hongfei was still alive. All it was is a Chinese based smart contract platform, with an innovative dBFT concensus algorithm. It was a 100M market cap coin that early adopters believed in, and essentially invested in when it was not much more than a website and a blockchain. Look where it’s at now, with more than a dozen dApps being built on it, a solid team of roughly 10 devs, with the NEO council also funding City of Zion (team of 20+ NEO devs). NEO has grown into an incredible community, and is now launching coding dApp contests left and right, with the latest one in partnership with Microsoft china & offering half a million dollar’s worth in prizes.
 
NEO holders get rewarded with GAS on a daily basis. When NEO gets further adoption, all fees such as registering an asset, deploying a contract, changing an asset, etc. will be redistributed to NEO holders as well on a pro rated basis. Only transaction fees are not, as those will go out to MasterNodes. If you got yourself a thousand NEO’s back when they were a dollar or two a piece, you’re now generating 7 gas per month. That’s roughly 161$ USD per month, on a recurring basis, at current gas prices, out of a 1000$ investment. That’s a whopping 16.1% PER MONTH on original investment, and not even counting the fact that you pretty much made 37000$ profit on the NEO’s themselves. Today? Well, you gotta dish out 38000$ to buy a thousand neos and make 161$ per month, basically bringing you 0.4% per month on original investment.
 
Same with bitcoin. Early adopters that got it at pennies. It just hit $10K USD a piece. For every 30 cent spent purchasing bitcoin in 2009, you’d have $10K USD in the bank account. Invested 3$? 100K. Invested 30$? 1M.
 
Ethereum? From a dollar to half a grand now.
 
Moral of the story? Early adoption pays off. History repeats itself, and it will continue to do so. Bitcoin was digital money for nerds, ethereum was a cool project that nobody really gave a crap about until they got EEA which showed credibility (early adopters of eth had a great vision, I’ll give them that!). Neo was chinese vaporware. What do they all have in common? Their.Early. Adopters. Made. A. Killing.
 
Look where they stand now. Look where a lot of coins stand now. Even a lot of ERC20 tokens that don’t even really have a reason to exist have market caps over 100M. And for what? They don’t reward you with anything other than price increasing because more people buy (greater fool theory)? They don’t reward you with dividends from the project/platform itself? Their value isn’t derived directly from the amount of usage it gets (a la Factom, PaulSnow you genius.)? They still don’t even have a minimum viable product to show? When you ask yourself why does it need a coin, and the answer is either “uhh…” or “oh it grants you voting rights” (that nobody gives a crap about, let’s be honest), you should reconsider your investment strategy. Cause I can tell you a lot of people don’t know what the hell they’re doing, and they’d be better off diversifying in the top 5 or 10 coins and holding than investing in the shitcoinfest that crypto has become.
 
And that’s why COSS is a pretty buy right now. You’re investing in a platform that’s already up and running, not a whitepaper or vaporware. Hell even Eth and Neo were riskier investments for early adopters. Let’s go over the cons first:
 
It’s ugly. The UI sucks.
It doesn’t have API’s yet, meaning there’s no bots to create liquidity, and therefore low volume.
It’s been fudded to death by KuCoin shills (and their referral links you’ve seen everywhere a month ago).
Charts are horrible
 
That’s about it. Whenever you read up about coss, those are the cons you’ll find. But what about the pros? Well, all of this is in the process of being fixed, as we speak.
 
Singapore has lax laws about cryptocurrencies and issued a statement it does not feel the need to regulate them.
It’s securing exclusive ICO’s already despite being a tiny exchange, and has mentioned being able to secure from 4 to 6 per month.
The team listens to the community’s feedback and takes it seriously. This is Gold. One of the first things they were criticized about was trying to do too many things at once (an exchange, a payment gateway, a full one-stop solution for crypto, etc.) and they’ve taken the community’s advice and decided to focus solely on the exchange for now and build it properly, before branching out to the rest. “Better excel at one thing and build from there, than be mediocre at multiple things at once”
Also following community feedback, they are implementing trading promotions “a la Binance”.
Part of the total supply of COSS tokens will be donated to charities (the community votes to who they go). First of all, that’s just plain nice. Secondly, I find it pretty damn cool that we donate this for good causes, and they basically keep “generating” income from it. It’s basically like a “perpetual donation” on behalf of COSS and all of its users, and definitely will make a lot of people feel good about using the exchange. Thirdly, this pretty much guarantees millions of COSS tokens are going to be in perpetual “HODL” mode, essentially taking them off the market.
They will be implementing a FIAT gateway sooner than later. We all know FIAT gateways are game changers.
They are constantly hiring. The team growing is definitely a good sign.
They are revamping the overall UI and charts, once again following the community’s advice, and the proposed new look is fantastic! Check it out here, as well as other great announcements: https://medium.com/@runeevensen/coss-io-7379b7628d93 EDIT: It has been brought to my attention that there is a UI upgrade scheduled for tomorrow (Dec. 3rd), although it isn't clear if it's a minor one or the actual major overhaul, might wanna keep an eye out on that!
They are upgrading the matching engine and releasing API’s soon to allow bots to create liquidity and significantly raise the trading volume.
Unlike KuCoin, the revenue split (COSS token holders) will always receive 50% of the fees, whereas kucoin will start decreasing it in 4-6months and it will bottom out at 10-15%
The revenue split from trading fees is controlled by a DAO, meaning the COSS team cannot arbitrarily decide to change it later down the line, unlike KuCoin where the control over the fee split is centralized and they decrease it as they please.
The DAO model also avoids it being labeled a security. First of all, those aren’t really “dividends” as dividends would require them to calculate income minus expenses to determine profit, and then distribute this profit to shareholders, and obviously that’s a legal nightmare. With the DAO model, you don’t get a percentage of the “profits”, you get a revenue split from the exchange fees, and it’s done by clicking a “distribute” button which makes a call to the smart contract and distributes your coins. COSS itself is not giving you anything
COSS is still in Beta. It has a tiny market cap. Now’s the time to pick it up, not when it’s out of beta and has become successful, or you’ll be in another Antshares/NEO situation. A ridiculously small move from 5M to 50M in Mcap and that’s x10, a move from 5M to 150M (still under binance levels) and that’s x30.
In the long run, COSS aims to be more than just an exchange. Holders of the token, who currently get 50% of the exchange’s trading fees, will also get 50% of other fees charged from coss. This includes their eventual payment gateway. Merchants around the world wishing to accept crypto payments will be able to use COSS’s gateway and COSS will charge a 0.75% fee per transaction. We, as COSS holders, also get 50% of that. You believe crypto is the future and going mainstream? Well your COSS will entitle you to the revenue generated by tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of businesses accepting crypto payments via COSS Point-Of-Sale.
COSS also mentioned that all other COSS “fee generating” products to come will all be subject to the same DAO/50% split. Logically, If they have 1) The trading platform, and 2) the payment gateway, then the third step is solving the problem of spending the crypto in places that don’t accept direct crypto payment, AKA a crypto credit/debit card. Well, guess what? Users of such cards will be charged a small fee as well when their crypto is being converted to fiat in real time for payment at a gas station. We as COSS holders are, again, getting 50% of that fee. As you can see, this is a coin that makes business sense to invest in. Unless you really, reaaaaaally care about a coin being the “Future of decentralized prediction markets” or “the future of decentralized dating” or the “decentralized gambling coin” and whatnot.
Smart money is smart. It's only a matter of time before savvy investors discover this coin.
 
What do the dividends look like (credits to lickmypussy28):
 
Here’s an excel showing the Yearly %ROI based on the COSS exchange volume and your COSS token buy-in price: https://i.imgur.com/XKjjCbZ.png
 
Here’s another one showing how much you’d make in USD per year based on how many COSS tokens you own, again all relative to the volume on the left: https://i.imgur.com/p15DKAr.png
 
Lastly, here’s another showing the exact same as above but on a weekly basis: https://i.imgur.com/ezp5FCV.png
 
ALTHOUGH, keep in mind, the calculations above take into consideration an average trading fee of 0.2% and while this fee is accurate right now, it will most likely average 0.1% once API’s are released and liquidity/market maker bots start operating on the platform. Also, the calculations above do NOT take into consideration that in 4 years from now, there will be 200M (hard cap) COSS tokens on the market. HOWEVER, these calculations also do not take into consideration that by then, COSS will have a fully up and running payment gateway, crypto credit cards, and other revenue-generating products such as a crowdfunding platform, smart contract deployment platform, etc. that are also generating revenue for COSS holders.
 
All in all, if all goes as planned, the payment gateway/cards/other products will negate the additional COSS tokens released in the market as well as the average trading fee of 0.1%, and therefore the numbers presented in the excel docs will remain sensibly the same. Also, if crypto really takes off in the mainstream, then the revenue split to coss holders from the payment gateway & credit card spending could very well double, triple or quadruple all the numbers you’re seeing in these excel sheets, and that’s on the low end. Remember, the exchange only charges 0.2% (0.1% average once we have bots) out of which we get half, but the payment gateway on the other hand charges a flat 0.75% (7.5x the what the exchange’s fee), out of which COSS holders get half. This could be a massive revenue driver, easily surpassing the exchange itself, and honestly if at that point in time this coin is NOT valued at 3B+ (I mean, even ethereum classic is over that right now..), then I’ll just give up on the whole notion of logical thinking.
 
Quick example, assuming in 4 years 50M in gateway processing daily (18B yearly), 0.375% of that would be 187.5K USD daily for COSS holders. With 200M Coss tokens total supply, if you hold 10K coss you’d generate 9.375$ per day (65$ per week, 282$/mo.), and that’s purely from the gateway (totally excluding the exchange revenue, crowdfunding revenue, credit card revenue, etc.).
 
If you have 100K coss you’d generate 93.7$/day, 650$/week, 2820$/mo, again purely from the gateway.
 
If you’d rather assume more conservative figures (let’s say 25M in daily gateway processing on COSS, all around the globe, or 9B yearly), then simply divide these figures by half. If you wanna go balls to the walls, double them (100M daily, 36B yearly). Play around, have fun with the numbers! To keep things in perspective, square has processed 50B’s worth of transactions in 2016. Therefore I believe using 9B, 18B and 36B for our calculations isn’t too far fetched, and actually pretty reasonable.
 
Anyway, to sum this up, no matter how you look at it, COSS is an extremely promising project with huge potential, and actually has working math (and a working beta!) behind it. It’s only a matter of a month or two before they’re out of their Beta, have upgrades to their UI and engine, and start really growing from there. The team listens to the community, which is super important, and they’re working on a multitude of revenue streams, out of which not only them, but all coss holders will benefit from, fifty fifty.
 
Their crowdfunding platform will be a competitor to indiegogo, gofundme, kickstarter, and they’ll have a small percentage fee (50% of which goes to COSS holders). The crypto Point-Of-Sale will be a competitor to Square and the likes (50% revenue to COSS holders). The crypto credit card (also 50% revenue to COSS holders). It is truely an admirable project. Shovel manufacturers made a killing during the gold rush, and COSS is positioning itself as the shovel manufacturer in the crypto adoption gold rush. This is a coin that makes sense to invest in, it is ultra tangible, and will give greater returns than any type of “decentralized [insert function here]” type coins.
 
On a personal note: Honestly, I believe this is the proper way to ICO, by NOT giving people worthless tokens that only go up in value due to speculation (looking at you, 99% of ERC20 tokens). Let investors guide you, let them reap 50% of the rewards as THEY are the ones funding you. This’ll keep the investors interested in the project, and every single one of them will have a direct incentive to vouch for your product. It’s only right for the investors to get rewarded with something tangible, I’d take that any day over a speculative shitcoin who’s only purpose was to put money in the project’s founders pockets
 
Oh, and cherry on the sundae: they are planning on launching massive marketing campaigns as soon as UI and trading engine are ready, Q1 2018, as you can see in Rune’s Nov 27th update. I suggest you read it, it puts us up to date on a lot of exciting new things: https://medium.com/@runeevensen/coss-io-update-november-27th-fa74f1237062
 
Quoted directly from said link: “For those that are most interested in discussions regarding the trading price of COSS. Please have in mind that when we entered our token sale, our clear sales message was a 3–5 year road-map, and not a 3–5 months pump and dump. We are a small team, doing our utmost to deliver and all we ask is for you to continue to give us feedback and also for you to give us some time to deliver. *That being said. We still aim to be out of BETA as soon as possible with a new engine for the exchange in Q1 2018. New UI should be in place well before that.** Once we feel we have this in place we will roll out massive marketing campaigns to attract users and increased volume. So although we have a 3–5 year road-map ahead, you should expect to see 2018 being “our year”. The 3–5 year plan is more on the complete roadmap when we proudly can call ourselves a one-stop solution. For now it is all about the exchange, and there we will see rapid changes over the coming weeks/months.”*
 
All in all, i’d like to thank the COSS team for actually caring about their investors, keeping them in the loop, listening to their feedback and giving them a unique and tangible opportunity. I’d also like to thank all the other COSS investors, who see a huge potential in this project and support the team, and lastly, all of you crypto-heads for reading through!
 
Happy hodling, and hopefully see you all at 500M+ market cap by late 2018 :)
 
-Some random guy on Reddit.
 
PS: Not investment advice. Always do your due diligence. Also, if you’d like, you can join the discussion at /cossIO
 
Friendly reminder: ETH is the quickest way to get your funds on the COSS exchange, and COSS/ETH pair has 4x the volume of the COSS/BTC pair.
submitted by globetrotter_s14 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Since 2009

Since 2009
When bitcoin started in 2009, it wasn’t much more than a novel idea.
Nearly no one knew about it. And the community was dominated by nerds, anarchists, and cypherpunks.
Times have changed.
Bitcoin has gone from a novelty… to a digital collectible… to a speculative asset.
And today, it’s becoming a reliable store of value.
We can see that in the chart below. It shows the supply of bitcoin that is just being held and not moved for five or more years. We’re looking at a five-year timeframe, as it’s the longest.
The chart shows there’s a growing number of long-term bitcoin holders.

https://preview.redd.it/otvf655lehh31.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea8a7470740b036d62c2fb043c3ae75aa2141c06
This is a great sign for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Because before they can become effective mediums of exchange or units of account, they must be reliable stores of value. And the chart below shows that’s happening today.
submitted by boomerangcapitalInc to CryptoCurrencies [link] [comments]

Safe Harbours and Storms | Monthly Portfolio Update - May 2019

Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty. – Tacitus
This is my thirtieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.
Portfolio goals
My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
*$1 598 000 by 31 December 2020. This should produce a real income of about $67 000 (Objective #1) *$1 980 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $83 000 (Objective #2)
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19%, or a nominal return of 7.19%, and are expressed in 2018 dollars.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $745 158 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $43 119 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $77 915 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $105 821 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $80 408 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $246 012 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 937 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $13 376 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 178 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $85 424 Secured physical gold – $13 652 Ratesetter* (P2P lending) – $23 262 Bitcoin – $132 720 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 130 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $1 883 BrickX* (P2P rental real estate) – $4 629 Total value: $1 598 624 (+$57 037)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.9% (4.1% under) Global shares – 22.3% Emerging markets shares – 2.6% International small companies – 3.3% Total international shares – 28.2% (1.8% under) Total shares – 69.1% (5.9% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 5.5% International bonds – 10.5% Total bonds – 16.0% (1.0% over) Gold – 6.2% Bitcoin – 8.3% Gold and alternatives – 14.5% (4.5% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
The portfolio has experienced strong growth through the month, with a total increase of around $57 000.
This fifth month of continuous growth has seen an important event occur ahead of schedule. Portfolio Objective #1 - which is the 'median income' FIRE target that was the goal set at the start of this record in December 2016 - has been narrowly achieved.
[Chart]
My expectation at the beginning of this year was to reach this particular goal only at the end of 2020. This itself was shifted forward from the original goal of passing a slightly lower median income objective by July 2021. The net result of all of this is that a higher absolute portfolio objective has been reached more than two years early.
This achievement may be temporary, as it comes following the equal second longest run of monthly gains in this record. Just an average monthly fall could easily see the portfolio dip well below the objective again, and a prolonged downturn in share markets could easily lead to major declines which would take some time to recover from. At this stage, given that my final Objective #2 is still some distance away and further accumulation is planned, this prospect does not overly concern me.
The portfolio performance this month largely reflects the same drivers that have dominated performance since the journey began. These drivers have been new contributions and increases in Australian shares (through Betashares A200), particularly since the Federal election. In addition, there has been a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin. This led to a portfolio growth which was the sixth highest in the record to date.
[Chart]
Credit card spending has been significantly lower than average over the past month. It has been the lowest level in six years in fact. As the series below indicates, however, it is a volatile measure.
Once financial year 2018-19 figures on distributions are finalised early next month, it's likely the the red line of distributions, which currently is an estimate based on low December half year figures, will be revised up. This in turn could mean a return to distributions on average coming close to meeting credit card expenses.
Progress
Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 100.0% 137.3% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 80.7% 110.8% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 91.8% 126.0% Total expenses - $96 000pa 69.8% 95.8%
Summary
Progress over the last few months has been swift and surprising. Timelines set less than six months ago have been met, and the portfolio has entered into the 'between' phase of being above my minimum Objective #1, but some distance from my ultimate goal (Objective #2).
Part of the process of adapting to this phase is understanding its true nature - its permanence or otherwise, and looking through short-term movements to try to discern the underlying picture. In short, inspection and delay.
This what lies behind recent posts seeking to analyse the income potential of the portfolio, and longer term trends in distributions and expenses. Seeking the additional data point of what this portfolio delivers currently is the reason I am straining forward to see the size and shape of the end of June distributions.
The advice commonly offered in the financial independence community at this point is crystal clear. Pay less attention to the numbers, and start exploring and building the life you desire now. The advice is so universal, and so intuitively sensible that I do not ignore it. With Australian and global equity markets poised as they are, however, I feel a resisting force going too far down this path. This is mostly stemming from a suspicion that prior to the goal being reached there might be one or more unavoidable challenges to come.
This may be linked to an increased probability of Australian interest rate reductions, and even the entry by Australian monetary authorities into some form of quantitative easing. As inflation stalls, and housing markets decline, the macroeconomic conditions appear less predictable than at any time since 2009. Some of the global financial trends and developments that are of most concern are well discussed in the most recent Incrementum AG In Gold We Trust report, which has as its theme tracing declining trust across the global financial system.
While that outlook might suggest protective action, overall I am comfortable with the extent of my diversification across less-correlated assets. It should be remembered that I felt similar unease two years ago - and that indulging in market timing at that point would have had high opportunity costs.
In any case, more and more it is evident that the performance of the portfolio is not something that can be materially altered by one or two monthly investment decisions. Rather, it is a function of the interaction of unstable markets with the compound effect of hundreds of smaller individual investment contribution decisions taken over the past decade or so across a range of different market conditions.
Following on from my quick Bitcoin and gold correlation analysis last month, I was interested to see this 'portfolio optimisation' based analysis on the potential role of Bitcoin in a portfolio, using just seven years of historical data. Also, this What's Up Next podcast on finding the right time to retire is a fascinating discussion of the issue of knowing when it is time to put into action FIRE plans. Finally, Aussie HIFIRE has recently pulled together a post highlighting the different voices in the Australian FIRE blogging community for readers.
As winter takes hold, the portfolio is prepared for as yet undefined challenges and storms that may emerge, and I remain intensely curious at what the coming set of distributions will disclose about the distance I still have to travel. One port gained, the next leg of the journey beckons.
The post and graphs can be viewed here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

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