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Weekly update. 437 BTC were traded using LocalBitcoin last week,trading Bs. /BTC and BTC/Bs. (Bolivares, Venezuelan "official" currency, ISO VES). These 437 BTC were 1,852,000,000,000 Bs. One BTC is around 4,600,000,000 Bs. Monthly minimum wage is less 2 USD. PhD uni professor earns 4 USD monthly.
New to this forum so id like to share some of my experience with one of the things that made me a lot, ewhoring. 1) first of your going to want to create a snapchat account, this account must have a high enough snapscore of a couple of thousand to make it look legit as possible, you can boost the snapscore of the account by sending tons of snaps to a bunch of celebrity accounts on snapchat. You can easily find these buy just searching any letter in the search bar and subscribing to all the accounts. add a bitmoji that looks like your girl, you can find a ton of mega links on the internet if you look, try find something not saturated and you should be fine. A good way to look legit on snapchat is of course to send live snaps. To send live snaps uploaded through your camera roll. On iPhone you can use the app prequel. on android you can use chicken cam. Other ways to look legit is to fake your location of the person you’re talking to. My way of doing this was jailbreaking my phone and using snapbreak. you can find tutorials on how to jailbreak everywhere and downloading snapbreak you’ll have to downgrade snapchat first. keep in mind recently snapchat has been banning accounts that have downgraded there snapchat so a way to get around this is to create the account on the downgraded version of snapchat and NEVER update. if you update you won’t be able to use snapbreak without a ban. snapbreak is an amazing tool for all sorts of stuff. Uploading to live snap. faking location. quick switching between accounts, sending snaps to everyone on your snapchat (more than 200 people) 2) one of the first ways i used to get traffic to my account was POF. POF you can create an account with a phone number, with your girl’s pics of course. (do not put add my snap in the bio or you’ll be flagged on the system), just swipe right on everyone and ask everyone to add your snap, "hey add my snap ____ ", people who won’t add you will not buy shit so don’t waste your time. if you do get banned on POF you can use the same phone number a few more times till your perma banned. it’s all about high quality traffic. If you get shit traffic you’ll have a bunch of time wasters on your snap that’s never going to buy. Refrain from doing sfs with other snap chatters unless you want shit traffic. Tinder is also a good source for high quality traffic. all tough once your banned on iPhone you will be mac banned. Changing your ip won’t work and even on a jailbroken iPhone you can’t change your mac. On android devices you can change your mac with rooted devices. I personally wouldn’t go through the effort and I would just make tinder accounts through pc. You can download tmac v6, and any proxy VPN will work. Always remember to clear cookies before creating a new account. Eventually you will run out of phone numbers to use once you get banned but we will get into that in the next step. 3) Smspva.com and smspool are great tools to get disposable phone numbers to create new accounts. For a small payment of like 50c to $1 per phone number. This can be paid through bitcoin. Hopefully you’ve made enough money at this stage through the traffic you got from your own number. (Yes using your own number is fine if you don’t care about getting banned from TindePOF) anyways. We will talk about how to get your ewhoring money into bitcoin in the next step. 4) Once your money is in bitcoin you can do whatever you want with it, in PayPal if you keep the money in your account to long it can be risked getting locked since you’ll be creating a PayPal account with your girls name/email. PayPal will constantly ask you to verify your account by adding a credit card or sometimes locking your account until you send proof of id. You can only get a maximum of 2500 per unverified PayPal account before they ask for verification (proof of id) you can create new PayPal accounts with new phone numbers through smspva/smspool. Paxful is a great tool to transfer your PayPal money to bitcoin. all tough ive heard you can trade PayPal to bitcoin on multiple other sites. Paxful was the one to work best for me. As I wouldn’t recommend keeping money in your PayPal account to long I suggest getting it into bitcoin asap. After a while paxful will ask for verification on your account. At this point you can just create a new account with a new email/phone number using smspool. I don’t think smspva has paxful verification phone numbers. Personally I traded about 300 at a time on paxful. And id be very wary of scammers. Once the bitcoin is in your paxful wallet. Transfer it to a third party wallet like Blockchain. 5) Let’s get back to the snapchat, remember it’s all about social engineering, get rid of the time wasters, all you want to do is create a private story to post a bunch of nude videos in and put on your main story and try advertise to everyone that your selling a premium snapchat, my prices were 20 monthly 30 lifetime to be a premium member. I charged 40 an hour for video calls. Yes I just blocked them after I received the payment. I charged 150 an hour 400 a night for meetups. With meetup scams I would ask them to pay a 75 deposit through PayPal and id send them the address, they can pay rest cash in hand or in PayPal. Once they would arrive at the address I’ve sent, (this would be a random for sale or address where no one lives in) I would tell them to pay the rest in PayPal and I’ll let them into the house. Even if they said they’d pay the rest in cash id still try tricking them into sending the rest of the payment in PayPal. I’ve made 750 of one guy using this method. Tips:
Do not transfer money over to a friend’s account to take it out through the bank its linked to, sometimes PayPal will ban all the accounts you’ve sent money to, I’ve no idea why this is a thing but I’ve had multiple peoples PayPal accounts get banned just because I’ve sent money to it.
Get rid of time wasters, if someone makes it clear they won’t pay block them or ignore. Don’t give away previews. The previews are on your story.
With big money transfers it must be your number one priority to get rid of that money from your PayPal account ASAP, remember that PayPal are always tracking you, they always have their eye on this sort of thing. Once a report has been made about your account it could be locked and you will not get your money back.
Make sure all your customers know to send money through PayPal using friends and family only. Business transfers can be reversed easily and it gets put on hold much more.
Don’t do anything stupid. Such as sign into the PayPal account on an iPhone. Phones have all your data on it; you can easily be traced on. Manage as many accounts on your pc/laptop and use the same name for everything, clear your cookies and don’t sign into your PayPal account multiple different times under different ip addresses, this will trigger 2fa and you won’t be able to verify your account with a disposable number
If your account does get locked under 2fa and you don’t have the original phone number. You can contact PayPal through live chat and just tell them it’s an old number you no longer have access to. They’ll ask for info such as your email full name and home address linked to the account. (Btw the home address can be set to any address just remember it) once you clarify this with the PayPal live support person they will unlock the account. I don’t know if this works 100 percent of the time but I speak from experience.
To download snapbreak you will have to downgrade using a tweak called Appstore++ snapbreak was a paid tweak that is no longer in development because it got cracked. It was originally 50 but now you can get it for free on some repos. ALWAYS remember to stay on the same version of snap per account.
any feed back on this method would be greatly appreciated, tell me what you think :)
Good morning once again! This listing is for items that did not sell during the October 11 Auction (most likely due to BP/fees, or maybe just because the "right" buyer didn't see the auction, who knows) - so you can buy anything you want right here and right now - no buyer's premiums, no additional fees - JUST DISCOUNTS ON EVERYTHING: *FREE shipping for any order over $100. *All the Graded/Slabbed Coins are available at 30% off the listed price guide (which should be accurate, was checked about a month ago.) *Any Sterling Silver non-coin item will be available at MELT (plus shipping.) *EVERYTHING ELSE is 10% off the listed start price. Each lot was individually imaged (front and back) for the auction - so the easiest way for you to see exactly what you're buying is to visit the auction link (the auction is over, so I'm not advertising anything different or advertising an upcoming auction) - so here that is: https://www.auctionzip.com/auction-catalog/HTF-Coins-Silver,-US,-Foreign-more_FYWN25UAV6?page=0&searchWithAll=&size=200&sort= Here is the required "prove you still have the stuff" photo with the username card and today's date: PHOTO Payment: PayPal. I do not have Venmo/Zello/Bitcoin or any other form of digital payment at this time. No notes if using PPFF, please. Thank you. Shipping: I will charge you what it costs me for the USPS label rounded up to the nearest dollar. For First Class that is usually $4, for USPS Priority Mail Flat Rate Small Box it will be $9. I will get you a tracking number right after payment is received and will get your package scanned into the USPS system within 24 hours of receipt of payment. I will offer "Risky Shipping" (via stamped greeting card)at my discretionfor $1 - for single, small coins ONLY.NOTE: These prices are for Continental US shipping only - if you live outside the continental US, shipping will be more expensive. I am still happy to do it under the same rules as above, but just keep in mind it's going to cost more. What do YOU need to do to buy coins from this group: send me a list of which lots you want (for example, I want to buy lots # 51, 52, 53, 54, 55) and I will send you a total. There are too many coins here (plus there are duplicates) so I cannot look up the coins you want by description - just give me lot numbers and it will be much simpler. I'd like to make a simple and polite request - if I have sent you my PayPal information (meaning we've agreed to a deal) please finish it up as soon as you can so I can check you off the list and move on to the next person. This helps make sure you get all the coins we discussed and no one else is in limbo. I will do my absolute best to update the ad as soon as lots sell.
11 1973 Proof Set $9.00 12 1973 Proof Set $9.00 13 1974 Proof Set $9.00 15 1975 Proof Set $9.00 17 1975 Proof Set $9.00 18 1975 Proof Set $9.00 19 1975 Proof Set $9.00 20 1975 Proof Set $9.00 21 1975 Proof Set $9.00 22 1975 Proof Set $9.00 23 1975 Proof Set $9.00 24 1975 Proof Set $9.00 25 1975 Proof Set $9.00 26 1975 Proof Set $9.00 27 1976 Proof Set $9.00 28 1976 Proof Set $9.00 29 1977 Proof Set $6.00 30 1977 Proof Set $6.00 31 1977 Proof Set $6.00 32 1977 Proof Set $6.00 33 1978 Proof Set $6.00 34 1978 Proof Set $6.00 35 1978 Proof Set $6.00 36 1978 Proof Set $6.00 37 1978 Proof Set $6.00 38 1975 Proof Set $9.00 51 Toner US Type Set 1 $55.00 52 Toner US Type Set 2 $30.00 53 Toner US Type Set 3 $30.00 54 1949 S Franklin Half UNC KEY DATE $40.00 55 1949 S Franklin Half UNC KEY DATE $40.00 59 1949 S Franklin Half UNC KEY DATE $40.00 60 1976 D Eisenhower Dollar UNC MINT CELLO $4.00 64 1977 D Eisenhower Dollar UNC MINT CELLO $4.00 65 Toner US Type Set 4 $25.00 66 Toner US Type Set 5 $30.00 67 1953 D Franklin Half UNC FULL BELL LINES $25.00 68 Toner US Type Set 6 $65.00 70 1936 Mercury Dime Doubled Die Obverse HIGH GRADE $30.00 73 1955 Roosevelt Dime UNC TONED $8.00 75 1955 S Roosevelt Dime UNC TONED $5.00 76 1955 S Roosevelt Dime UNC TONED $5.00 78 World Silver - Canada 1913 25 Cents $5.00 80 1956 Roosevelt Dime UNC TONED $8.00 81 1958 D Roosevelt Dime UNC TONED $5.00 83 1964 Roosevelt Dime UNC TONED $3.00 84 1964 Roosevelt Dime UNC TONED $3.00 85 World Silver - Canada 1906 10 Cents $3.00 89 1928 S/S Standing Liberty Quarter Rainbow Toned $20.00 90 1974 D Eisenhower Dollar UNC MINT CELLO $4.00 94 France - 1865 BB 5 Centimes $1.00 95 Illinois Governer Otto Kerner Inauguration Medal $4.00 96 1928 S "Inverted MM" Standing Liberty Quarter $35.00 113 Type Coin Lot $50.00 114 50 Indian Head Cents, Mixed Dates & Conditions $40.00 115 50 Indian Head Cents, Mixed Dates & Conditions $40.00 116 50 Indian Head Cents, Mixed Dates & Conditions $40.00 117 75 Indian Head Cents, Mixed Dates & Conditions $60.00 154 1958 Type B Washington Quarter UNC $12.00 156 1956 Washington Quarter UNC RAINBOW TONED $15.00 158 Denmark - 1921 5 Ore $2.00 159 1968 D Kennedy Half UNC TONED $10.00 160 1958 Type B Reverse Washington Quarter UNC $15.00 162 1959 Type B Reverse Washington Quarter UNC $12.00 163 1959 Type B Reverse Washington Quarter UNC TONED $15.00 166 1960 Type B Reverse Washington Quarter UNC $12.00 167 1960 Type B Reverse Washington Quarter UNC $12.00 170 1875 Indian Head Cent $3.00 171 1963 Type B Reverse Washington Quarter UNC TONED $15.00 172 1963 Type B Reverse Washington Quarter UNC TONED $15.00 173 1964 Kennedy Half Mint Clip Error $15.00 175 1964 D Washington Quarter UNC TONED $12.00 179 Stag Beer Wooden Nickel "Fair on the Square" $1.00 180 The TV Shop Slidell, LA One Wooden Buck $1.00 185 St Helena - 1981 25 Pence (Crown Sized) $3.00 190 1996 D Kennedy Half UNC MINT CELLO $2.00 191 State of Missouri Sesquicentennial Medal $2.00 193 State of Missouri Sesquicentennial Medal $2.00 194 State of Missouri Sesquicentennial Medal $2.00 199 1974 D Kennedy Half Dollar DDO UNC $35.00 200 Star Wars Episode III Limited Edition Token/Medal $3.00 253 1978 D Kennedy Half Dollar UNC from Mint Set GEM BU TONED $40.00 255 World Silver - Switzerland 1953 1/2 Franc $3.00 256 1979 Kennedy Half Dollar UNC from Mint Set GEM BU TONED $15.00 257 1986 D Kennedy Half Dollar UNC from Mint Set GEM BU TONED $30.00 258 1986 D Kennedy Half Dollar UNC from Mint Set GEM BU TONED $15.00 259 1954 S Washington Quarter UNC $15.00 260 1957 Washington Quarter UNC TONED $15.00 261 1963 Type B Reverse Washington Quarter UNC TONED $30.00 262 1999 D Kennedy Half Dollar UNC from Mint Set GEM BU PROOFLIKE $10.00 265 Panama - 1975 Proof 5 Centesimos in OGP cello $1.00 266 1971 D Eisenhower Dollar "Talon Head" Obverse Die Clash / "Moon Line" Reverse Die Clash UNC TONED $20.00 269 Maybrook NY Golden Jubilee Good For 10 Cent Wooden Nickel $1.00 270 Maybrook NY 1975 Golden Jubilee 25 Cent Wooden Nickel $1.00 271 World Silver - Australia 1939 Sixpence $4.00 272 1974 Eisenhower Dollar UNC RAINBOW TONED $20.00 274 1957 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 275 1974 D Eisenhower Dollar UNC RAINBOW TONED $15.00 276 World Silver - Australia 1920 Shilling $8.00 277 1959 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 278 2010 S Buchanan Presidential Golden Dollar from Proof Set with Doubled Edge Lettering $10.00 279 1960 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 280 World Silver - Australia 1943 Shilling $8.00 281 1961 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 282 2011 S Johnson Presidential Golden Dollar from Proof Set with Doubled Edge Lettering $10.00 286 1963 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 287 1983 Lincoln Cent DDO FS-101 $40.00 288 1964 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 289 1983 Lincoln Cent DDO UNC $40.00 290 1983 Lincoln Cent DDO UNC GEM BU $75.00 291 1964 D Washington Silver Quarter UNC TONED $10.00 292 2000 "Wide AM" Lincoln Cent UNC $20.00 293 1960's Terre Haute, IN Sesquicentennial Wooden Nickel $1.00 294 .999 Silver 1 oz MLB Mike Piazza Limited Edition Silver Proof Round $30.00 295 1964 "The American Indian - America's First Pioneer" 1 oz .999 Silver Round $30.00 296 "Winter Scenes" Sterling Silver Art Round $25.00 297 Illinois "Illiniwek" Mascot Sterling Silver Art Round TONED $25.00 298 1982 Buffalo NY Sesquicentennial Wooden Nickel $1.00 299 1958 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 300 1959 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 351 1960 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 352 Denmark - 1950 5 Ore KEY DATE $25.00 353 1961 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 357 1990 Rappahannock Area Coin Club Wooden Nickel $1.00 359 1962 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 360 Old Time Wooden Nickel Co Support Our Troops Wooden Nickel $1.00 361 1963 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 362 Switzerland - 1874 B 5 Rappen $40.00 363 1964 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 366 1957 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 368 1958 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 370 1959 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 371 Great Britain - 1920 1/2 Crown NICE $60.00 372 New Zealand - 1942 1/2 Crown $35.00 373 1960 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 374 Sudan - 1972 50 Ghirsh UNC $4.00 375 1961 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 377 Clear Lake, IA Perkins Wooden Nickel $1.00 378 Lake of the Woods 40th Anniversary Bimetallic Token $1.00 379 1962 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 380 Great Britain - 1981 25 New Pence UNC $3.00 383 Guyana - 1970 1 Dollar UNC $3.00 384 New Zealand - 1953 1 Crown $5.00 385 Illawarrra Numismatic Association Membership Discount Wooden Nickel Token $1.00 386 San Juan Quality Royale Casino Token $1 Face Value $2.00 388 Artisan Silverworks Temecula, CA Wooden Nickel $1.00 390 1963 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 393 Netherlands East Indies - 1945 S 1 Cent UNC $2.00 394 1964 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 395 1957 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 396 Netherlands Antilles - 1965 2.5 Cents UNC TONED $10.00 397 Virginia Numismatic Association Encased Cent $3.00 398 Netherlands - 1921 1/2 Cent BETTER DATE $3.00 399 Netherlands - 1922 1/2 Cent BETTER DATE $5.00 400 1958 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 451 1959 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 452 Belgium - 1902 1 Centime $1.00 453 Netherlands Antilles - 1959 1 Cent UNC $4.00 454 Belgium - 1901 1 Centime $2.00 455 Canada - 1930 5 Cents NICE $8.00 456 Canada - 1930 5 Cents NICER $10.00 458 Canada - 1948 5 Cents $1.00 461 Barbados - 1973 Proof 5 Cents in OGP $1.00 462 Barbados - 1973 Proof 1 Dollar in OGP $1.00 463 Barbados - 1973 Proof 25 Cents in OGP $1.00 464 Barbados - 1973 Proof 10 Cents in OGP $1.00 465 World Silver - Canada 1882 H Ten Cents $10.00 466 World Silver - Canada 1886 Ten Cents $15.00 467 2009 P Lincoln Cent "Formative Years" Doubled Die Reverse Book High UNC $2.00 469 Trinidad & Tobago - 1973 Proof 10 Cents in OGP $1.00 470 World Silver - Canada 1899 Ten Cents $8.00 471 Trinidad & Tobago - 1973 Proof 1 Cent in OGP $1.00 472 British Virgin Islands - 1974 Proof 10 Cents in OGP cello $1.00 473 Trinidad & Tobago - 1973 Proof 50 Cents in OGP $1.00 474 World Silver - Canada 1908 Ten Cents $4.00 476 British Virgin Islands - 1973 Proof 1 Cent in OGP $1.00 477 Netherlands - 1906 1 Cent NICE $1.00 478 British Virgin Islands - 1973 Proof 25 Cents in OGP $1.00 479 1961 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 480 Barbados - 1980 Proof 25 Cents in OGP cello $1.00 481 1962 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 482 Panama - 1976 Proof 5 Centesimos in OGP cello $1.00 483 Panama - 1976 Proof 10 Centesimos in OGP cello $1.00 484 Netherlands - 1912 1/2 Cent NICE $3.00 485 1963 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 486 1964 Type B Reverse Washington Silver Quarter (starts at melt) $5.00 488 Netherlands East Indies - 1921 1/2 Cent NICE KEY DATE $12.00 490 British Virgin Islands - 1974 Proof 1 Cent in OGP $1.00 491 Denmark - 1920 10 Ore Doubled Die Obverse (date) $5.00 492 India - 2010 10 Rupees UNC $1.00 494 British Virgin Islands - 1974 Proof 5 Cents in OGP cello $1.00 495 France - 1946 C 5 Francs $3.00 497 World Silver - Canada 1874 H 25 Cents $8.00 498 British Virgin Islands - 1974 Proof 10 Cents in OGP $1.00 499 France - 1952 5 Francs KEY DATE $10.00 500 France - 1946 5 Francs $1.00 551 Switzerland - 1906 1 Rappen BETTER DATE $10.00 552 World Silver - Switzerland 1963 1 Franc NICE $5.00 553 Switzerland - 1902 2 Rappen KEY DATE FIRST YEAR $15.00 554 Panama - 1975 Proof 1 Centesimo in OGP $2.00 555 Panama - 1975 Proof 10 Centesimos in OGP $3.00 556 Panama - 1976 Proof 10 Centesimos in OGP $2.00 557 Switzerland - 1910 2 Rappen BETTER DATE $10.00 558 2009 P Lincoln Cent "Formative Years" Doubled Die Reverse Book Low UNC $2.00 559 Panama - 1975 Proof 25 Centesimos in OGP $2.00 561 Panama - 1975 Proof 5 Centesimos in OGP $2.00 562 Panama - 1976 Proof 5 Centesimos in OGP $4.00 568 Panama - 1974 Proof 5 Centesimos in OGP cello $1.00 570 France - 1889 A 5 Centimes $1.00 572 Panama - 1973 Proof 1/10 Balboa in OGP $1.00 573 France - 1854 D 5 Centimes $1.00 574 Barbados - 1973 Proof 1 Cent $1.00 575 Panama - 1973 Proof 1/4 Balboa in OGP $1.00 576 France - 1862 K 5 Centimes $1.00 577 1934 Washington Quarter Medium Motto NICE $15.00 579 Liberia 1941 2 Cents NICE $6.00 580 World Silver - Denmark 1874 25 Ore $6.00 581 Liberia - 1974 Proof 5 Cents in OGP $1.00 583 France - 1856 BB 5 Centimes $1.00 584 Liberia - 1974 Proof 10 Cents in OGP $1.00 585 Mexico Mint Set 1965 (includes silver) $5.00 587 Mexico Mint Set Mixed Dates (includes silver) $5.00 588 France - 1863 K 5 Centimes $2.00 590 France - 1855 D 5 Centimes $1.00 593 France - 1854 K 5 Centimes $1.00 594 Bahamas - 1970 Proof 1 Cent in OGP $1.00 595 France - 1853 D 10 Centimes $1.00 596 France - 1856 K 10 Centimes $1.00 599 France - 1854 W 10 Centimes $1.00 600 2009 P Lincoln Cent "Formative Years" Doubled Die Reverse Book Low UNC $2.00 651 2009 P Lincoln Cent "Formative Years" Doubled Die Reverse Book Low UNC $2.00 652 2009 P Lincoln Cent "Formative Years" Doubled Die Reverse Book Low UNC $2.00 653 2009 P Lincoln Cent "Formative Years" Doubled Die Reverse 012 UNC $2.00 654 2009 P Lincoln Cent "Formative Years" Doubled Die Reverse 012 UNC $2.00 655 2009 P Lincoln Cent "Formative Years" Doubled Die Reverse 012 UNC $2.00 658 World Silver - Austria - 1868 10 Kreuzer $2.00 660 World Silver - Canada 1916 25 Cents $6.00 661 Greece - 1959 10 Drachmai UNC $10.00 663 World Silver - Canada 1921 25 Cents $8.00 664 World Silver - Canada 1921 25 Cents $8.00 666 2009 P Lincoln Cent "Formative Years" Doubled Die Reverse 001 UNC $2.00 667 2009 P Lincoln Cent "Formative Years" Doubled Die Reverse 002 UNC $2.00 670 Barbados - 1973 Proof 1 Cent and 5 Cents in OGP (two coins) $1.00 671 Barbados - 1973 Proof 10 Cents and 25 Cents in OGP (two coins) $1.00 672 Cayman Islands - 1974 Proof 5 Cents and 10 Cents in OGP (two coins) $1.00 673 Bahamas - 1973 and 1974 Proof 1 Cents in OGP (two coins) $1.00 674 Bahamas - 1973 and 1974 Proof 5 Cents in OGP (two coins) $1.00 675 Switzerland - 1921 10 Rappen NICE $8.00 676 Switzerland - 1936 2 Rappen KEY DATE $5.00 677 World Silver - Switzerland 1955 1/2 Franc BETTER DATE $4.00 679 1982 Silver Proof George Washington Commemorative Half Dollar in OGP $11.00 680 1982 Silver Proof George Washington Commemorative Half Dollar in OGP $11.00 681 1982 Silver Proof George Washington Commemorative Half Dollar in OGP $11.00 682 1982 Silver Proof George Washington Commemorative Half Dollar in OGP $11.00 684 World Silver - Saint Thomas & Prince Island (Sao Tome et Principe) 1951 2 1/2 Escudos LOW MINTAGE $25.00 685 1986 Proof 2 CoinStatue of Liberty Set (Silver Dollar and Clad Half) in OGP $22.00 686 1986 Proof 2 CoinStatue of Liberty Set (Silver Dollar and Clad Half) in OGP $22.00 687 Bahamas - 1976 Proof 25 Cents in OGP $1.00 689 Two French Notgeld Tokens $2.00 690 1986 Proof 2 CoinStatue of Liberty Set (Silver Dollar and Clad Half) in OGP $22.00 691 Two French Notgeld Tokens $2.00 692 1986 Proof 2 CoinStatue of Liberty Set (Silver Dollar and Clad Half) in OGP $22.00 693 Mexico - 1954 5 Centavos UNC $3.00 694 World Silver - Japan 1932 50 Sen $6.00 695 Mexico - 1966 20 Centavos UNC $5.00 696 1986 Silver Proof Statue of Liberty Dollar in OGP $20.00 697 World Silver - Canada 1929 10 Cents $3.00 698 1986 Silver Proof Statue of Liberty Dollar in OGP $20.00 699 Mexico - 1973 20 Centavos UNC $6.00 700 World Silver - Canada 1948 10 Cents $3.00 751 1986 Silver Proof Statue of Liberty Dollar in OGP $20.00 752 Mexico - 1955 5 Centavos $1.00 753 Mexico - 1955 5 Centavos $1.00 755 Canada - "Heads and Tails" RCM Mint Booklet with 1968 Mint Set $5.00 756 Four Canada 1991 UNC Cents (4 coins) in OGP CELLO $1.00 757 Four Canada 1991 UNC 5 Cents (4 coins) in OGP CELLO $1.00 759 Four Canada 1991 UNC 10 Cents (4 coins) in OGP CELLO $2.00 760 Philippines - 1975 Proof 10 Cents in OGP $1.00 761 Nepal 1974 Proof Set LOW MINTAGE $3.00 762 Philippines - 1975 Proof 5 Cents in OGP $1.00 766 Four Canada 1991 UNC 50 Cents (4 coins) in OGP CELLO $4.00 767 Four Canada 1991 UNC 1 Dollar (4 coins) in OGP CELLO $7.00 768 Belize 1974 Uncirculated Specimen Set in OGP $25.00 771 Jamaica - 1976 Proof 1 Cent in OGP $1.00 773 1961 Silver Proof Washington Quarter DEEP CAMEO $10.00 774 1964 D Washington Quarter UNC TONED $8.00 775 1961 Silver Proof Washington Quarter DEEP CAMEO $10.00 776 1974 P Kennedy Half Dollar UNC MINT CELLO $2.00 777 Poland - 2014 2 Zlotych UNC $2.00 778 Two Mixed World Coins $1.00 779 1959 Silver Proof Washington Quarter DEEP CAMEO $10.00 780 1956 Silver Proof Washington Quarter $6.00 781 1956 Silver Proof Washington Quarter $6.00 782 Two Mixed Tokens $1.00 783 1976 P Kennedy Half Dollar UNC MINT CELLO $2.00 785 1956 Silver Proof Washington Quarter $6.00 787 1941 S "Large S" Lincoln Wheat Cent $1.00 789 1953 Silver Proof Washington Quarter NICE $20.00 794 2011 S Silver Proof Glacier Quarter $6.00 795 St Pierre & Miquelon - 1948 1 Franc UNC $8.00 796 2013 S Silver Proof Great Basin Quarter $6.00 800 1995 Lincoln Cent Doubled Die Obverse $20.00 851 1971 Lincoln Memorial Cent NGC MS67RD (Price Guide $195) 852 1971 Jefferson Nickel NGC MS66 6FS (Price Guide $125) 853 1946 S Roosevelt Dime NGC MS67FT (Price Guide $95) 854 World Silver - Egypt AH1293 (Year 10; 1884) 10 Qirsh $12.00 856 1965 Roosevelt Dime NGC MS67 FULL TORCH (Price Guide $750) 857 1965 Washington Quarter NGC MS66 (Price Guide $30) 858 1971 Washington Quarter NGC MS66 (Price Guide $50) 859 1971 D Washington Quarter NGC MS67 (Price Guide $65) 860 1963 D Franklin Half Dollar NGC MS65 FULL BELL LINES (Price Guide $190) 861 1971 D Kennedy Half Dollar NGC MS67 (Price Guide $120) 862 1971 P Eisenhower Dollar NGC MS65 (Price Guide $80) 863 1825 Half Cent NGC VG10BN (Price Guide $85) 864 1939 S Jefferson Nickel PCGS MS65 Rev 1940 (Price Guide $90) 865 1943 P Silver Jefferson Nickel DDO (Doubled Eye) NGC XF45 (Price Guide $75) 866 1941 D Jefferson Nickel NGC MS66 5 Full Steps (Price Guide $40) 867 1941 D Jefferson Nickel NGC MS67 5 Full Steps (Price Guide $175) 868 2011 S Silver Proof Chickasaw Quarter $6.00 869 2013 S Silver Proof White Mountain Quarter $6.00 870 1943 D Jefferson Nickel Old NGC MS67 (Price Guide $90) 871 1956 D Jefferson Nickel NGC MS65 TONED (Price Guide $20) 872 1956 D Jefferson Nickel NGC MS65 TONED (Price Guide $20) 873 1958 Proof Jefferson Nickel NGC PF69 (Price Guide $110) 874 1978 D Jefferson Nickel NGC MS66 5 Full Steps (Price Guide $60) 875 1945 S Micro S Mercury Dime NGC MS66 (Price Guide $140) 876 1946 S/S Washington Quarter RPM-002 NGC MS65 (Price Guide $75) 877 1946 S/S Washington Quarter RPM-002 NGC MS65 (Price Guide $75) 878 1947 S/S Washington Quarter RPM-001 NGC MS66 (Price Guide $285) 879 1950 Washington Quarter DDR NGC MS66 (Price Guide $150) 880 1957 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse PCGS MS66 (Price Guide $110) 881 1958 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS65 (Price Guide $100) 882 2013 S Silver Proof Fort McHenry Quarter $6.00 883 1959 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS64 (Price Guide $40) 884 1959 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS64 (Price Guide $40) 885 1959 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS64 (Price Guide $40) 886 Canada - 1962 "Hanging 2" 1 Cent UNC $8.00 887 1959 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS65 (Price Guide $55) 888 1959 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS65 (Price Guide $55) 889 1959 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS65 (Price Guide $55) 890 1959 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS65 (Price Guide $55) 891 1959 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS65 (Price Guide $55) 892 1960 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS65 (Price Guide $65) 893 1960 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS64 (Price Guide $50) 894 1960 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS64 (Price Guide $50) 896 1960 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS65 (Price Guide $65) 897 1960 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS65 (Price Guide $65) 898 1960 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS65 (Price Guide $65) 899 1962 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse PCGS MS65 (Price Guide $110) 951 1963 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse PCGS MS65 (Price Guide $130) 952 1963 Washington Quarter Type B Reverse NGC MS65 (Price Guide $130) 953 Philippines - 1944 D/D 20 Centavos NGC AU58 RARE Variety (Priced at $55) 954 1942 Walking Liberty Half DDR NGC AU58 (Price Guide $100) 955 1942 Walking Liberty Half DDR PCGS MS67 GEM (Price Guide $6,000) 956 1953 D Franklin Half Bugs Bunny PCGS MS64FBL (Price Guide $170 957 1954 D Franklin Half Bugs Bunny PCGS MS64FBL (Price Guide $100) 958 1954 D Franklin Half Bugs Bunny PCGS MS64FBL (Price Guide $100) 960 1974 D Kennedy Half DDO PCGS AU58 (Price Guide $35) 961 1977 D Kennedy Half DDO NGC AU58 (Price Guide $175) 962 1977 D Kennedy Half DDO NGC AU58 (Price Guide $175) 963 1977 D Kennedy Half DDO NGC MS61 (Price Guide $250) 964 1977 D Kennedy Half DDO NGC MS62 (Price Guide $350) 965 1977 D Kennedy Half DDO ANACS MS63 (Price Guide $100) 966 1977 D Kennedy Half DDO NGC MS65 (Price Guide $250) 967 1977 D Kennedy Half DDO NGC MS65 (Price Guide $250) 968 1885 O Morgan Dollar NGC MS63 TONED (Priced at $100 due to toning) 969 Sterling Silver Cup Engraved "Johnny" 53.3 grams 971 Sterling Silver Cigarette Case Engraved "CML" 67.5 grams 972 2010 S Silver Proof Mount Hood Quarter $6.00 974 2011 S Silver Proof Olympic Quarter $6.00 976 2010 S Silver Proof Yosemite Quarter $6.00 977 1964 D Washington Quarter BU NICE $5.00 978 1959 D Washington Quarter BU NICE $5.00 979 Sterling Silver Tongs 19.1 grams 980 Sterling Silver Tongs 19.0 grams 981 1984 P Kennedy Half Dollar UNC MINT CELLO $2.00 982 1979 P Kennedy Half Dollar UNC MINT CELLO $2.00 983 1959 D Washington Quarter BU NICE $5.00 984 1959 D Washington Quarter BU NICE $5.00 985 France - 1919 10 Centimes NICE $2.00 986 1953 S Silver Washington Quarter NICE $8.00 987 France - 1945 C 5 Francs $2.00 988 France - 1945 C 5 Francs $2.00 989 Sterling Silver Spoon Engraved "Eugene 1892" 10.0 grams 990 France - 1946 C 5 Francs $3.00 991 France - 1946 C 5 Francs $3.00 992 France - 1946 C 5 Francs $3.00 993 France - 1946 C 5 Francs $3.00 994 1964 D Washington Quarter BU NICE $5.00 995 Sterling Silver Spoon Engraved "1893" 10.0 grams 998 1964 Washington Quarter BU NICE $5.00 999 1962 Washington Quarter BU NICE $5.00
Weekly update. 437 BTC were traded using LocalBitcoin last week,trading Bs. /BTC and BTC/Bs. (Bolivares, Venezuelan "official" currency, ISO VES). These 437 BTC were 1,852,000,000,000 Bs. One BTC is around 4,600,000,000 Bs. Monthly minimum wage is less 2 USD. PhD uni professor earns 4 USD monthly.
~ More companies follow in Microstrategy’s footsteps. Rumors of more corporate treasurers investing in BTC in boardrooms globally. A few listed large corporates announce accumulation of BTC after their buddies have all bought in (Board members, C-suite executives, family, and friends, etc.) ~ Money printing does not stop as the deflationary force of technology is too severe; the new US government formed after Biden’s win begins to adopt MMT as its primary guidance of future economic theory, led by Steph Kelton. ~ The holiday season and strong seasonality pump BTC back to $20k for the first time. Hard rejection and price fall back to $14k.
~ BTC finally breaks $20k after multiple retests of overhead resistance sometime in spring ~ Almost weekly we see another corporation announcing vested interest in BTC ~ No longer in doubt that the asset class is in a bull market. Macro funds pile in. By year-end, we’re at $55k. Newspaper reports Bitcoin has now broken the $1 trillion mark. Most institutions begin scrambling to understand the asset class and set up “Digital Asset Investment teams” ~ Retail money flows to altcoins; Bitcoin is becoming too expensive for “retail” investors. The bitcoin community discusses possibly denoting BTC as sats, but majority of exchanges not interested as they derive most income from alt flows. However, most Bitcoin-only platforms switch to sats as the primary display format led by bitcoiners who now have considerable wealth and influence ~ Increasing talk that some smaller nations are now discussing the prospect of including Bitcoin on their central bank balance sheet ~ The first BTC-denominated corporate bond is launched
~ Those in power have established full BTC positions, and we begin to see subtle clues that some countries are possibly accumulating BTC ~ Private banks selling BTC structured products now out in full force; custody solutions are now institutional-grade. 50% of the world’s banks have some product/solution tailored around bitcoin. The other 50% scramble. ~ Marks the top as BTC momentarily exceeds the most valuable company by market cap (~$2.5 trillion in 2022 @ $130K price). The final days of the frenzy are filled with rumors that central banks have accumulated 10% of global supply, and that it may even form part of the IMF’s global recognized reserve currencies. Crypto Twitter reaches peak “I told you so”
~ The next bear market isn’t as severe as the last few; as the digital asset teams of various institutions are accumulating up to 2-5% of their AuM. It’s now commonly accepted that this asset class is here to stay and that even deploying $10 billion is no longer an issue in an asset class worth an aggregate $5 trillion. ~ BTC finds a floor 60% lower at $50K as smart money accumulates. CT screams for a 80% correction because mUh bItCoIn cYcLeS aNd fRaCtAls ~ Investment banks now have full-fledged research teams dedicated to digital assets. Calls for 80% correction too, so the smart money front-runs. ~ The middle class latches on to the wholecoining meme. “1 Bitcoin to secure a retirement; stack those sats” ~ The wealthy who are now increasingly composed of inherited wealth begin selling real estate/equities/bonds for Bitcoin but holds their BTC with their private bank. Realizing that Bitcoin supply is truly limited and sensing the “1 bitcoin to retire” meme; and that not every millionaire can own 1 bitcoin, many of the rich/ultra-rich scramble to buy 5–100 BTC each if only to cement their status as rich. 5–100 BTC costs $500K-10M (at $100k per BTC) ~ The winning product of the year is an automatic savings plan in bitcoin.
~ Bitcoin is back to trading near its all-time highs of $130K after the 2024 halving cycle, however, the effect is marginal but the markets wrongly attribute it to the halving supply squeeze, building a false narrative for the next cycle in 2028. ~ Institutional money now in full-play; on hindsight we’ll realize the 10-year steady bull-run has actually begun since last year in 2023, similar to the gold bull run from 2000 to 2011 ~ More exchanges finally denominate BTC in sats. $100K BTC = 0.1 cent per sat. Logging into platform displays your stack as:
“11.7m satoshis ≈ $17,500”
~ Retail attempts to trade around the 2028 halving cycle. The halving cycle no longer have much of an impact, as demand now far outstrips supply changes ~ Many earlycoiners now sell between $200–400K, only to see it continue its relentless climb at a 30% annual rate ~ The first central bank announces the official addition to their balance sheets; all other central bank begins to FOMO. Cements BTC as a global reserve asset. ~ Governments ask that private ownership of bitcoin be transferred to regulated financial institutions such as their local bank where it will be held under custody. 70% of people do so.
~ Many of the early-coiners now buyback at near to $1M ($20 trillion market cap), finally equaling gold’s market cap at a price of $4000+ ~ Bitcoin peaks and meanders under $1M for the next decade ~ Volatility is now <10% per year, merchants begin adopting it en-masse as a medium of exchange
~ 5 years of price stability leads to some merchants re-pricing certain goods in sat-terms ~ The lightning network crosses a billion channels created ~ Fiat does not go away, but most G20 countries decide to ban bitcoin as a medium of exchange for economic transactions. Ownership of bitcoin as an asset is encouraged as a store of wealth; private ownership is frowned upon and in some cases made illegal.
Wandering From the Path? | Monthly Portfolio Update - August 2020
Midway along the journey of our lifeI woke to find myself in a dark wood,for I had wandered off from the straight path. Dante, The Divine Comedy: Inferno, Canto I This is my forty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund $733 769
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund $41 794
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund $78 533
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund $110 771
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) $216 758
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) $64 542
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) $237 138
Telstra shares (TLS) $1 540
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) $6 043
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) $121 976
Secured physical gold $19 535
Ratesetter (P2P lending) $8 998
Bitcoin $177 310
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) $17 421
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) $2 759
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) $4 477
Total portfolio value $1 848 896 (+$48 777 or 2.7%) Asset allocation
Australian shares 41.5%
Global shares 22.6%
Emerging market shares 2.2%
International small companies 2.8%
Total international shares 27.6%
Total shares 69.2% (5.8% under)
Total property securities 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds 4.4%
International bonds 8.9%
Total bonds 13.3% (1.7% under)
Gold and alternatives 17.2% (7.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The portfolio has increased in value for the fifth consecutive month, and is starting to approach the monthly value last reached in January. The portfolio has grown over $48 000, or 2.7 per cent this month, reflecting the strong market recovery since late March [Chart] The growth in the portfolio was broadly-based across global and Australian equities, with an increase of around 3.8 per cent. Following strong previous rises, gold holdings decreased by around 2.2 per cent, while Bitcoin continued to increase in value (by 2.5 per cent). Combined, the value of gold and Bitcoin holdings remain at a new peak, while total equity holdings are still below their late January peak to the tune of around $50 000. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio continue to fall below the target allocation. [Chart] The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars. New investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) and the Australian shares equivalent (VAS). These have been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares set out in the portfolio plan. As the exchange traded funds such as VGS, VAS and Betashares A200 now make up nearly 30 per cent of the overall portfolio, the quarterly payments they provide have increased in magnitude and importance. Early in the journey, third quarter distributions were essentially immaterial events. Using the same 'median per unit' forecast approach as recently used for half yearly forecasts would suggest a third quarter payout due at the end of September of around $6000. Due to significant announced dividend reductions across this year I am, however, currently assuming this is likely to be significantly lower, and perhaps in the vicinity of $4000 or less. Finding true north: approach to achieving a set asset allocation One of the choices facing all investors with a preferred asset allocation is how strictly the target is applied over time, and what variability is acceptable around that. There is a significant body of financial literature around that issue. My own approach has been to seek to target the preferred asset allocation dynamically, through buying the asset class that is furthest from its target, with new portfolio contributions, and re-investment of paid out distributions. As part of monitoring asset allocation, I also track a measure of 'absolute' variance, to understand at a whole of portfolio level how far it is from the desired allocation. This is the sum of the absolute value of variances (e.g. so that being 3 per cent under target in shares, and 7 per cent over target in fixed interest will equal an absolute variance of 10 per cent under this measure). This measure is currently sitting near its highest level in around 2 years, at 15.0 per cent, as can be seen in the chart below. [Chart] The dominant reason for this higher level of variance from target is significant appreciation in the price of gold and Bitcoin holdings. Mapping the sources of portfolio variances Changes in target allocations in the past makes direct comparisons problematic, but previous peaks of the variance measure matches almost perfectly past Bitcoin price movements. For a brief period in January 2018, gold and Bitcoin combined constituted 20 per cent, or 1 in 5 dollars of the entire portfolio. Due to the growth in other equity components of the portfolio since this level has not been subsequently exceeded. Nonetheless, it is instructive to understand that the dollar value of combined gold and Bitcoin holdings is actually up around $40 000 from that brief peak. With the larger portfolio, this now means they together make up 17.2 per cent of the total portfolio value. Tacking into the wind of portfolio movements? The logical question to fall out from this situation is: to what extent should this drive an active choice to sell down gold and Bitcoin until they resume their 10 per cent target allocation? This would currently imply selling around $130 000 of gold or Bitcoin, and generating a capital gains tax liability of potentially up to $27 000. Needless to say this is not an attractive proposition. Several other considerations lead me to not make this choice:
The problem may solve itself as portfolio grows - Growth and continued investments in the portfolio will tend to reduce the variance caused by gold and Bitcoin. The asset allocation targeting approach I adopt has seen continued contributions to equities, reducing the ability of these alternative assets to add to future variance.
Falls in Bitcoin or gold values will also solve the problem - Conversely, price falls in Bitcoin or gold will tend to reduce the variance issue, and such price falls have significant precedents, with for example Bitcoin holdings falling to a value of around $50 000 as recently as January 2019.
If neither of these happen, there may be bigger issues to solve - The only scenario where neither of these alleviating factors occur is should gold and Bitcoin continue to rapidly appreciate compared to other assets, in which case it is difficult to see the value of reducing exposure now.
Does Bitcoin even fit the asset allocation model? - Bitcoin in particular is not a well established or accepted asset class as yet, so it may not be appropriate to apply traditional allocation rules to it - it may be functioning more as a hedge or option against extreme states of the world. Linked to this is the high degree of volatility in Bitcoin. Adopting too tight a target on Bitcoin holdings would potentially see a need to buy and sell Bitcoin frequently, where my intention is to actually never purchase any more.
This approach is a departure from a mechanistic implementation of an asset allocation rule. Rather, the approach I take is pragmatic. Tracking course drift in the portfolio components As an example, I regularly review whether a significant fall in Bitcoin prices to its recent lows would alter my monthly decision on where to direct new investments. So far it does not, and the 'signal' continues to be to buy new equities. Another tool I use is a monthly measurement of the absolute dollar variance of Australian and global shares, as well as fixed interest, from their ideal target allocations. The chart below sets this out for the period since January 2019. A positive value effectively represents an over-allocation to a sector, a negative value, an under-allocation compared to target. [Chart] This reinforces the overall story that, as gold and Bitcoin have grown in value, there emerges a larger 'deficit' to the target. Falls in equities markets across February and March also produce visibly larger 'dollar gaps' to the target allocation. This graph enables a tracking of the impact of portfolio gains or losses, and volatility, and a better understanding of the practical task of returning to target allocations. Runaway lines in either direction would be evidence that current approaches for returning to targets were unworkable, but so far this does not appear to be the case. A crossing over: a credit card FI milestone This month has seen a long awaited milestone reached. Calculated on a past three year average, portfolio distributions now entirely meet monthly credit card expenses. This means that every credit card purchase - each shopping trip or online purchase - is effectively paid for by average portfolio distributions. At the start of this journey, distributions were only equivalent to around 40 per cent of credit card expenses. As time has progressed distributions have increased to cover a larger and larger proportion of card expenses. [Chart] Most recently, with COVID-19 related restrictions having pushed card expenditure down further, the remaining gap to this 'Credit Card FI' target has closed. Looked at on an un-smoothed basis, expenditures on the credit card have continued to be slightly lower than average across the past month. The below chart details the extent to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month. [Chart] Credit card expenditure makes up around 80 per cent of total spending, so this is not a milestone that makes paid work irrelevant or optional. Similarly, if spending rises as various travel and other restrictions ease, it is possible that this position could be temporary. Equally, should distributions fall dramatically below long term averages in the year ahead, this could result in average distributions falling faster than average monthly card expenditure. Even without this, on a three year average basis, monthly distributions will decline as high distributions received in the second half of 2017 slowly fall out of the estimation sample. For the moment, however, a slim margin exists. Distributions are $13 per month above average monthly credit card bills. This feels like a substantial achievement to note, as one unlooked for at the outset of the journey. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 84.8% 114.6% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.5% 139.9% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 82.9% 112.1% Summary What feels like a long winter is just passed. The cold days and weeks have felt repetitive and dominated by a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Yet through this time, this wandering off, the portfolio has moved quite steadily back towards it previous highs. That it is even approaching them in the course of just a few months is unexpected. What this obscures is the different components of growth driving this outcome. The portfolio that is recovering, like the index it follows, is changing in its underlying composition. This can be seen most starkly in the high levels of variance from the target portfolio sought discussed above. It is equally true, however, of individual components such as international equity holdings. In the case of the United States the overall index performance has been driven by share price growth in just a few information technology giants. Gold and Bitcoin have emerged from the shadows of the portfolio to an unintended leading role in portfolio growth since early 2019. This month I have enjoyed reading the Chapter by Chapter release of the Aussie FIRE e-book coordinated by Pearler. I've also been reading posts from some newer Australian financial independence bloggers, Two to Fire, FIRE Down Under, and Chasing FIRE Down Under. In podcasts, I have enjoyed the Mad Fientist's update on his fourth year of financial freedom, and Pat and Dave's FIRE and Chill episodes, including an excellent one on market timing fallacies. The ASX Australian Investor Study 2020 has also been released - setting out some broader trends in recent Australian investment markets, and containing a snapshot of the holdings, approaches and views of everyday investors. This contained many intriguing findings, such as the median investment portfolio ($130 000), its most frequent components (direct Australian shares), and how frequently portfolios are usually checked - with 61 per cent of investors checking their portfolios at least once a month. This is my own approach also. Monthly assessments allow me to gauge and reflect on how I or elements of the portfolio may have wandered off the straight way in the middle of the journey. Without this, the risk is that dark woods and bent pathways beckon. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Proof: https://imgur.com/a/7xQGIbC All prices based on spot price of gold @ $1,970/oz , silver @ $24.25/oz, platinum @ $915/oz (7/31/20). Prices good with gold spot below $1990, silver below $25. I am not a coin grader. The condition of any coin listed is how it was listed when I acquired it. I will be more than happy to provide any detailed, unedited photos for any coin. Unless specifically mentioned, assume coins are in generally good condition. Noticeable defects potentially affecting the value will attempt to be noted. I try to price my items substantially below the lowest price I can find online from a national dealer. If you see a legitimate cheaper price, let me know and I may very well adjust my price. FYI, I am in Eastern time zone if I do not respond, may be sleeping. PLATINUM LISTINGS Proof:https://imgur.com/a/FcUg9BV Physical platinum has been hard to come by and premiums have been high. Lucky to have these to list: 1 oz Argor-Heraeus Platinum Bars in assay x 10 9 8 — $990/ea (spot plus $75) GOLD LISTINGS Proof: https://imgur.com/a/bGofCRx 2009-W Ultra High Relief Proof St. Gauden 24K in OGP. Quite simply, this may be the coolest coin I have ever seen! — $2,250 1 oz slabbed American Gold Eagle 25th Anniversary Early Release, MS70 NGC (2011) — $2,150 (Note: slab has some scratches on it, the coin is fine) 1924 slabbed $20 St. Gaudens gold double eagle, MS63 PCGS — $2,050 1925 Slabbed $20 St. Gaudens gold double eagle, MS64 PCGS -- $2,275 1911-S Slabbed $20 St. Gaudens gold double eagle, MS63 Blanchard — $2,200 1910 Raw $20 St. Gauden gold double eagle — $2,025 $10 Gold Liberty Head x 2 (1894, 1899) — $1,010/ea 2018-W Slabbed First Strike PCGS MS70 American Gold Eagle — $2,175 Cleaned 1899 $5 Liberty head gold coin — $535 2002 slabbed Salt Lake City Olympics $5 gold commemorative, MS69 PCGS (0.2419 oz) — $485 Proof: https://imgur.com/a/bGofCRx 100gm (10x10) Valcambi Combicard in assay. Individually @ $73/ea x 100. I will risky ship up to 3 of these in an envelope for $1 @ buyer’s risk. It will not be tracked and I do not like doing it. Would prefer $4 bubble mailer, but buyer’s choice. 1 oz gold bars in assay [Valcambi x 2 1, Sunshine Mint, PAMP Religious Romanesque (Note: some peeling of clear cover for PAMP — pictures if desired)] — $2,030 1 oz Credit Suisse gold bar, in plastic but not assay — $2,030 Sterngold, 99.95%, used in making dental alloys, 1gm each x 30. This is a unique item not likely to be found in many collector’s stash. I will risky ship up to 3 of these in an envelope for $1 @ buyer’s risk. It will not be tracked and I do not like doing it. Would prefer $4 bubble mailer, but buyer’s choice— $71/ea Proof: https://imgur.com/a/wa1mLWZ 1oz American Gold Eagle, BU (1989, Roman numerals) — $2,060 1oz American Gold Eagle (1986, Roman numerals) — $2060 1 oz gold Pandas (1987, 2011) — 1987 sealed, BU — $2,175 ; 2011, uncirculated — $2,250 1 oz Gold Apartheid era South African Krugerrands x 42 (1975 x 2, 1977, 1978, 1979 x 27, 1980, 1981 x 8, 1982, 1984) — $2,040/ea 1 oz Gold American Buffalos (2016 x 1, 2006 x 2) [NOTE: both 2006 have a slight ding on the rim. Sealed in plastic, not ex-jewelry, but slight ding. Photos if desired)] — $2,070 for 2016, $2,065/ea for 2006’s with ding 1 oz Gold Brittania, BU (2020) — $2,065 1 oz unique Canada Golden Eagle, BU (2018). This is .99999 pure (that is five 9’s). Highest purity I am aware of — $2,070 1 oz Gold Austrian Philharmonics, BU (1994 x 1, 1999 x 1) — $2,040/ea 1 oz Gold Canadian Maple Leafs x 8 (1980 x 2, 1981, 2002 with red on “F” of fine gold on reverse, 2002 x 3 with some small scratches, 2011) — $2050/ea 1/4 oz American Gold Eagles x 6 4 (1988 Roman Numeral, 2013, 2014, 2015 x 2, 2020) — $565/ea 1/10oz American Gold Eagles in display (5 coins), BU (2006, 2012) — $1,200/ea Empty case to display your own set of 5 1/10 oz American Gold Eagles— $10 1/4oz Gold Brittanias, BU (2013 x4) — $600/ea 50 Pesos Mexican Gold x 10 (1947 Restrikes x 8, 1943, 1944) — $2,460/ea for restrikes, $2,470/ea for ’43, ’44 1/2 oz Gold Apartheid era South African Krugerrands x 3 (1980 x 2, 1981) — $1,100/ea 1/10 oz Gold Apartheid era South African Krugerrands x 2524 23 (various dates 1980-1984, 2011 (not apartheid era) x 1) — $240/ea 1/10 oz American Gold Eagles (various dates x 43, Roman numeral x 11 7) x 5450 45 — $240/ea for various dates, $260/ea Roman numeral dates Proof: https://imgur.com/a/KCjdPAy 2006 American Gold Eagle Proof Set (1 oz, 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, 1/10 oz — 1.85 total troy oz) in OGP — $3,875 1997 Jackie Robinson $5 gold commemorative set. Comes with COA, baseball card, pin, patch, presentation box. There are some dings on the box. Pictures if desired. (0.2419 oz) — $700 (A portion of the proceeds will go toward a reputable social justice charity) 1987 & 1988 UK Gold Sovereign Proof Sets in nice case (each set has a Double Sovereign: 28.4mm, Sovereign: 22.05mm, Half Sovereign: 19.3mm) -- $1,850/each set (NOTE: the 1988 set is missing the COA.) Austrian Ducat 4 gold coin x 2 (1915 x 2 ), 0.4438 tory oz gold — $895/ea 20 Francs Gold x 2015 6 (1110 4 — Roosters, 54 2 -- Swiss Francs, 4 1-French Empire), 0.1867 troy oz of gold/ea — $380/ea Netherlands Gold 10 Guilder x 5, contain 0.1947 troy oz/ea (1926 x 2, 1927, 1932, 1933) — $470/ea Gold Libertad 1/20 oz (2016) — $200 OBO Gold Libertad 1/10 oz, BU (2016) — $340 OBO Gold Libertad 1/10 oz proof (2016) — $350 OBO Gold Sovereigns x 5 1, contain 7.315g gold/ea (1902, 1911, 1927 x 2 x 1, 1928) — $475/ea 1/4 oz Gold Canadian Maple (2005) — $565 Proof: https://imgur.com/a/VXzaDUN Late Addition: 5 3 additional 1976 1 oz Krugerrands — $2,040/ea 6 additional Pandas: Don’t ask me why the premiums on Pandas are so high. They just are. I tried to price about $20+ dollars below the cheapest I could find them online at large dealers. If you find a legitimate lower price, let me know and I may very well adjust the price. 1985 — $2,150, 1987 — $2,120, 1988 — $2,095, 1990 — $2,150, 1991 — $2,150, 2002 — $2,200, 2011 — $2,240 26 25 1/10 oz Australian Battle of the Coral Sea Battle in the Pacific, in capsules — $225/ea 14 additional Netherlands gold 10 guilders — $470/ea LOW PREMIUM LISTINGS Proof: https://imgur.com/a/jlE0Xuu All the time I see posts looking for precious metals “at or near spot.” Well here is your chance. If you don’t purchase these, then you are not really looking for gold at or near spot, you are looking for premium items without the premium. Those deals may be out there, but they are few and far between, with lines of buyers looking to snap them up, including myself. Items here will generally be available for spot + <2%. To get a physical form of a precious metal refined, assayed, and produced into an identifiable and verifiable form/weight/purity for a tad above spot is pretty darn good, regardless of the collectability of the item. I see people paying more premium for scrap gold than some of these. 1976 Canadian Montreal Olympic $100 commemorative (one in OGP (signs of wear), one loose with OGP in worn state but coin is fine, 0.25 oz each). You are not purchasing these for the packaging. — $500/ea American Arts Gold Medallion Grant Wood, 1 troy oz — $2,005 2010 US Mint First Spouse Series Gold Uncirculated Mary Todd Lincoln 1/2 troy oz in OGP, NOTE: red spot on obverse (See Photo) — $1,005 Cleaned, ex-jewelry $5 Liberty head gold coin (1900, 1906 ), Note: some rim damage, will send photos if desired — $485/ea JEWELRY LISTINGS Proof: https://imgur.com/a/QEVcW0F CRESCENT sterling silver pocket watch case, twist on bezel. Marked with CRESCENT, Sterling, serial number 4188. Amateur engraving with a marked name and 1919. Weighs over 100 grams!!! Pre-owned, with expected signs of tarnish and wear. A ding on back of case (see photo close up) — $75 1913 $5 Indian Head gold coin in 14K bezel, bezel weighs 1.30g — $575 2014 1/10 oz American Gold Eagle in 14K eagle pendant, bezel weighs 3.487g — $400 SILVER LISTINGS Proof: https://imgur.com/a/MTK1BfP Proof: https://imgur.com/a/54maJxn 25 Slabbed and Graded American Silver Eagles — Whole lot for $1,000 OBO. May make offers on individual rounds. (SOLD '92. '93, '14W) For reference, on 8/15, APMEX wholesale site is asking $100/ea for the ‘94’s. Offering to buy ‘14-S for $50 and the NGC MS70 for $120.
—ALL NGC MS69 — 1992, 1993, 1994 x 3, 2000, 2001 x 2, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007 —ALL NGC MS69 — 2007 Early Release x 7 —NGC MS69 — 2014(W) —NGC MS69 — 2013 First Release —PCGS MS69 — 2008 First Strike —PCGS MS69 — 2014(S) First Strike —PCGS MS69 — 2003 —NGC MS70 — 2003
100 oz silver bars (Engelhard x 1, Ohio Precious Metals —don’t believe they will be making either of these anymore) — $2,775 /ea 20 oz Scottsdale kit kat bars (2) — $555/ea (1 left) 10 oz Queen's Beasts Series Falcons x 4 — $400/ea 2 oz Queen's Beasts Series -- tubes of Falcons x 4 ($800/ea), Yales x 4 ($580/ea) 1 oz Sunshine Minting Silver Bars x 237 199 — $28.50/ea 1 roll 2006 90% San Francisco Mint Proof Colorado State Washington Quarters — $210 (NOTE: it looks like there might be some small surface scratches on some of the coins. Therefore, they are being priced as just uncirculated.) Men in Space Series I First Edition, .925 commemorative medals x 2 sets. These are not just sterling silver medals but history depicting the major events in the early years of NASA. https://www.worthpoint.com/worthopedia/danbury-mint-men-space-series-first-411707135 One set in original presentation packaging just like the link. One set loose with a few extra medals (2 additional medals from the 1969 Men in Space series II — 2nd Moon Landing, 1st Space Rescue; one duplicate medal from series I, and one additional First Manned Landing on the Moon Apollo 11 (slightly larger, from unknown series to me)). Sold in lots only. Lot with packaging (21 medals, 0.7 oz each) — $360. Loose lot (25 medals, 0.7 oz each plus 1 slightly larger Appollo 11 as above) — $375 Proof: https://imgur.com/gallery/hRX6XlB Mexican Silver Lot -- Sold in lots of (10) @ $175/lot. YOU MAY MIX/MATCH —1952-53 Mexican 5 Pesos Hidalgo, 72% silver, 0.643 troy oz silvecoin (x10) —1977-79 Mexican 100 Pesos, 72% silver, 0.643 troy oz silvecoin (x10) —1968— Mexican Olympic 25 Pesos, 72% silver, 0.521 troy oz silvecoin (x20) 1973 Mundinero World Trade rounds x 2 tubes — $600/ea 1973 Mundinero World Trade Rounds with 14 of the 20 being High Relief — $640 Generic Rounds (mostly buffalos, I believe ) x 10 tubes — $560/tube Few loose generic rounds x 6 — $28/ea 2 Painted American Silver Eagles — $30/ea ’84-’85 Engelhard Prospector Rounds x 2 tubes — One tube of (20) — $660; One tube of (17) — $560 Canadian Maple Tubes of 25 x 3 (2012 x 2, 2008 x 1, NOTE: 2008 rounds have some milk spots) — $725/tube Proof: https://imgur.com/a/XnRiLPW Lot of 17 premium rounds: Philharmonics x4, Brittanias x 5, 2018 Republic Of Chad African Lion x 2, Krugerrands x 3, Australian Kangaroo x 1, Super Pit Australia x 2 — $488. Sold only as a lot. Lot of fractional silver rounds, 1.35 ASW — 1/4 oz indian head, 1/4 oz walking liberty, 1/4 oz buffalo nickel, 1/10 oz indian head x 3, buffalo x 1, Morgan x 1 — $44. Sold only as a lot. LOW PREMIUM LISTINGS Proof: https://imgur.com/a/R9NuZj8 All the time I see posts looking for precious metals “at or near spot.” Well here is your chance. If you don’t purchase these, then you are not really looking for silver at or near spot, you are looking for premium items without the premium. Those deals may be out there, but they are few and far between, with lines of buyers looking to snap them up, including myself. Items here will generally be available for spot + <2%. To get a physical form of a precious metal refined, assayed, and produced into an identifiable and verifiable form/weight/purity for a tad above spot is pretty darn good, regardless of the collectability of the item. I see people paying more premium for scrap than some of these. Silver war nickels @ $1.36/ea (BELOW SPOT), 8,500+ available, minimum quantity of 100 Large lot of Canadian — further info on request. Prefer to sell this in larger lots grouped together, not piecing it out or small lots. Take the whole lot for $3,000, or:
—$1.75fv, .925 — $33 —$20.25fv, ’67-’68, 50% (mostly all quarters) — $185 —$164.35fv, pre ’67, 80% (includes 65 $1) — $2,400 —1976 Montreal Olympic .925 $10 commemoratives x 9, 1.4454 troy oz/ea — $40/ea —1972 .925 $25 Cayman Island Silver Anniversary x 1, 1.5271 troy oz — $42.50
TERMS: All eligible items are verified with a sigma precious metal verifier or Kee gold tester. Prices are generally based on the underlying spot price. Large fluctuations in spot prices could affect the price of items listed. Shipping will generally be at cost. USPS first class starts @ $4, SFRB @ $8.50, signature @ $2.50. Will insure for 1.1% of purchase price. Shipping is at buyer’s risk. All items will be tracked, but I cannot be responsible for what happens on your porch. Would recommend delivery to a secure box for precious metals. Accept in order of preference: 1st — Zelle or Venmo; 2nd — PPFF (no comments), PPG&S @ +3.0%; Last resort: I have recently acquired the ability to accept Bitcoin, but am still learning. Be patient and fees will be at buyer’s expense, but I will try to work with you if other options do not suffice. Other forms of payment will be considered. Thank you!
For Trading October 22nd WHR HOME RUN NUMBERS CMG, TSLA, LVS All Beat Today’s market was another back and forth without much net change. I know that many think that 100 or 200-point moves look like a lot but on a percentage basis it’s less than 1%. With “algo’s” and buy and sell programs, that’s not overwhelming. At the end of the day the DJIA was -97.97 (.35%), NASDAQ -31.80 (.28%), S&P 500 -7.56 (.22%), the Russell -13.93 (.86%) and the biggest loser was DJ Transports -135.28 (1.14%). Market internals were 2:1 down on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Only 7 stocks were up out of the DJIA with the big winner TRV adding 45 DP’s and the loser was GS -33 DP’s. The rest were all up or down less than 20. The lack of progress on any stimulus plans seems to be the main issue, and it concerns me greatly. I’m not so much concerned with poor holiday sales, but they clearly will suffer, but the jackasses in Washington have no idea what it means to be concerned with the rent, or food, or heat, and assuming that Biden gets elected, I wouldn’t expect any action until mid-winter. #TERMLIMITS. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! Yesterday’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/g-gP65lp96E SECTORS: Earnings were the big movers again today with some big names putting out some big numbers. The biggest winner that I keyed in upon was Whirlpool (WHR). I should have seen that coming with all of the home repairs and upgrades, great housing numbers and easy credit terms. They beat top and bottom lines and the stock had closed $196.83 -3.10 (1.55%) but after the numbers traded up to $216 and the last is $205.75 +5.82 (2.91%). They had great metrics for their own brand as well as private label lines. The all-time high of $217.00 was way back in early 2015. Tesla beat and although their call hasn’t taken place yet, the stock had a pretty calm day (for TSLA), finishing $422.64 +.70 but after the beat the stock traded to $442.00 and the last is $436.95 +15.01 (3.5%). We’ll have to see if Elon has “one more thing” to announce! SNAP had great metrics and while it was $34.95 +6.50 this morning, it traded to $38.89 and finished $36.23 +7.78 (27.35%). CHIPOTLE (CMG) was a loser, although their numbers were good, with major continuing growth in digital and opening new stores. I personally order from there and get it delivered within 25-30 minutes (for free) and love it. After closing just under the all-time high at $1366.66 +18.19 it fell to $1250, before turning back up. I had a few members buying small odd-lots between -68 and -47, and the last is $1311.90 -36.47 (2.78%). New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -.18, RCL -.89, NCHL -.18, AAL -.13, DAL -.58, LUV -.50, UAL -.51, HA -.20, ALK -.24 and XTN $61.04-.64 (1.04%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.31, BOS +.07, FLO -.22, CPB +.08, CAG -.03, MDLZ -.16, KHC -.55, CALM +.30, JJSF +1.89, SAFM +3.67, HRL +.69, SJM +.28, PPC +.17, KR unchanged, and a new addition ACI -.20, and PBJ $34.13 -.05 (.14%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB +1.25, ABBV -.85, REGN -6.63, ISRG -3.85, GILD -.34, MYL -.17, TEVA +.34, VRTX -2.63, BHC +.78, INCY -.47, ICPT -1.37, LABU -3.91, and IBB $134.19 -2.34 (1.71%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.16, CGC +.62, CRON +.15, GWPH +1.15, ACB +.25, CURLF +.25, KERN -.03, and MJ $11.55 +.21 (1.85%). DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -4.71, GD -1.85, TXT -.45, NOC -.,05, BWXT -.39, TDY -10.86, RTX -.74, and ITA $160.79 -2.54 (1.56%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.15, JWN +.14, KSS +1.31, DDS -.49, WMT +.60, TGT -1.72, TJX +.05, RL +1.50, and a new addition GPS -.42, and XRT $53.44 -.35 (.65%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were LOWER with GOOGL +39.88, AMZN -29.51, AAPL -.91, FB +10.91, NFLX 35.44, NVDA -4.20, TSLA +14.86, BABA -1.91, BIDU +5.02, CMG -34.47, CRM -1.57, BA -3.05, CAT -1.53, DIS +1.79 and XLK $119.10 -.21 (.18%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -5.15, JPM -1.06, BAC -.11, MS -1.17, C -.57, PNC -1.38, AIG +1.02, TRV +6.94, V +1.15, and XLF $24.60 -.21 (.85%). OIL, $40.03 -1.67, Oil has been locked into the current range and tried to break in either direction without success. Last night I said, “While I think it may resolve to the downside, I am not taking any new positions.” The stocks were lower today and there has been a pickup in M&A activity in the group. XLE finished $29.41 -.49 (1.64%). GOLD $1,929.50 +14.10 opened HIGHER and made a higher into the falling 50-day MA and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $12,755 +785. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and 250 today @$14.19, and we still have 250 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $14.29 +.99 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir). Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. Inspiration Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out. A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing. Data Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors. Google Search Trends \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months \"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months Brokerage data Robinhood SPY holders \"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement TD Ameritrade Excerpt Media cnbc.com Alexa rank CNBC viewership & rankings wallstreetbets comments / day investing comments / day Analysis What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well. However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so. SPX daily Rationale Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market. Sentiment & Magic Crayons As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality. From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities. SPY daily Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data. There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend. This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level. VIX Daily Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so. Putting Everything Together Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180. tldr; we've reached the top EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested. 5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level 5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing. 5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts 5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play. 5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30. 5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit. 5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30. 5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again 5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p 5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend. 5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there. 5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
The Wonders of Government Backstopped Promissory Notes..
Scientific Gaming Corporation (SGMS) is a very strange company. The operating income is fabulous, but when you factor in the gargantuan yearly interest payments, they consistently end up losing money. Over the 3 fiscal years spanning 2016-2018, they paid $1.86 billion in interest while generating only $788 million in operating income. What's worse is that even though this has been going on for almost two decades now, you can still only count on one hand how many times that they've booked a yearly profit. SGMS is, of course, a big player in gambling industry. For a lender to be profiting to that extent from the gambling industry, while at the same time providing little in terms of real tangible value to the company (all they did was loan the company money), seems almost equivalent to banks laundering 100's of billions for drug kingpins.. Could you imagine a situation where the fed, through its unprecedented entry into the HY corporate bond market, were to backstop SGMS's promissory notes through direct purchases in secondary markets.. Through their previously implemented Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), the fed has already agreed to swap equities for 3 month term loans. This, of course, would've been completely okay, but let's not forget, on March 17, 2020, the market was in freefall, so there was no way to reasonably price the collateral being exchanged to, as it says specifically in the federal reserve act, protect tax payers from losses. https://preview.redd.it/9iax3y939pu51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4a35289f80764b4905bfbf12bb9577422d366c7a https://preview.redd.it/bys73bc69pu51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d7377e54df5681473bbaed2962919e084b305554 Term Sheet for Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) "Collateral eligible for pledge under the PDCF includes all collateral eligible for pledge in open market operations (OMO);1 plus investment grade corporate debt securities, international agency securities, commercial paper, municipal securities, mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities;2 ***plus equity securities.**** Foreign currency-denominated securities are not eligible for pledge under the PDCF at this time. " The PDCF functioned as an overnight loan facility for primary dealers (Investment Banks), similar to the way the Federal Reserve's discount window provides a backup source of funding to depository institutions. Considering the reversal starting in .March.23RD, 2020 (while the entire world was shutdown, and during America's worst GDP quarter in its 244 year history), it almost makes you question whether certain insiders knew what was going to happen..If you can simply exchange equities for short term cash, and receive these equities back after up to 90 days, if the stock market breaks momentum records during the lifespan of the exchange, that's a double win. Not only could you have purchased equities at the bottom with your own secret little fed subsidized margin account, but you could also receive the equities that you used to borrow the money to buy the new equities near the bottom back for the cash
Can Blockchain Gaming Drive Cryptocurrency Adoption?
The gaming industry, with its approximately 2.5 billion gamers worldwide, is a lucrative target and an immense field of application for blockchain itself, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that could no doubt give a mighty push toward taking and making the technology mainstream. Honestly, this is not quite a news as the efforts to establish cryptocurrencies in the entertainment sector have gone a long way, with varying degrees of success. by StealthEX What they were, how it fared, and where things are going now – these questions deserve their own inquiry. So let’s take a look at how gaming facilitates cryptocurrency adoption, in what ways, and whether exposing the blockchain tech to a user base of a third of the world’s population would help oil the wheels of this sportster in a major way and ultimately cause a tectonic shift in the gaming industry itself.
A Little Bit of History
As Bitcoin kicked off in late 2008, with its first transaction hitting, or effectively starting, the blockchain in early January of 2009, it had taken well over two years till the cryptocurrency got involved in online gambling. It was the now-defunct mobile poker platform, Switchpoker, a developer of an online poker room that started to accept Bitcoin as a deposit and payment option. You can still find a topic on Bitcointalk.org about this news dated back to November 23, 2011. In April 2012, Erik Voorhees, an American entrepreneur and early Bitcoin adopter, founded Satoshi Dice, arguably the oldest online cryptocasino on the block, which is still pretty much alive today, although Voorhees sold it in a year. What makes it truly intriguing is the fact that during its early years the casino was generating half of all the transactions on the Bitcoin network. In short, online gambling was critically important in Bitcoin’s infancy years as it helped promote cryptocurrency awareness that led to future growth and expansion into other areas. Some folks are certainly going to argue that gambling is not the same thing as gaming. The commonly accepted view is that gaming is based on skill while gambling on chance. We won’t debate over this point. However, as every poker player knows, the outcome of a poker game depends not only on luck, but also on skill and expertise. Put simply, there are large gray areas and overlaps. All things considered, our exposition would be missing a big chunk of significant history without giving due credit to gambling and how it helped Bitcoin adoption. Now that online gambling is off our chest, we can safely turn to gaming as it is understood in the industry, and look at how it helped the blockchain space. One of the first uses of Bitcoin in a major game that we are aware of started in 2014 with the launch of BitQuest, a Minecraft server that used Bitcoin for in-game transactions. Within the gaming environment you could buy valuable in-game stuff from other users with the so-called bits, small fractions of a Bitcoin, and earn them by completing in-game tasks or challenges like killing local monsters. BitQuest closed the server in summer of 2019, and its brand name now belongs to a different entity not involved with gaming, but it still produced an impact. In essence, this effort successfully demonstrated how a cryptocurrency, in this case Bitcoin, can be used in lieu of a native in-game currency that players can earn, buy and spend as well as withdraw. This has serious implications for two main reasons. First, Bitcoin, unlike any other purely in-game currency, has uses outside the game and its ecosystem, and, second, its supply cannot be manipulated by the game developers, which makes the game by far more fair and square. Needless to say, the example that BitQuest had set encouraged other market participants to look into Bitcoin as an alternative option for in-game currencies. Another popular Minecraft server, PlayMC, also introduced Bitcoin into its world in 2015, but ceased the operation just two years later. There were a few other servers experimenting with altcoins, more specifically, Dogecoin, but most of them disappeared from the scene shortly thereafter, failing to attract enough die-hard Minecraft fans.
What Has Changed?
With the arrival of smart contract-enabled blockchains such as Ethereum, EOS and TRON, the phrase “blockchain gaming” has taken on a more literal meaning as these blockchains allow games to be designed and played entirely on-chain in much the same manner trades are made on a decentralized exchange. While TRON stands for “The Real-time Operating system Nucleus”, there is an obvious reference to a once popular arcade game based on a titular 1982 science fiction film that ultimately garnered a cult following. CryptoKitties is likely the most popular game ever released in the Ethereum ecosystem and probably in the whole crypto space so far. Its test version was made available on October 19, 2017, and it was an instant success. By the end of 2017 over 200,000 people signed up for the game, spending over $20 million in Ether. We won’t delve into its “gameplay” as it is beyond the scope of this article, and most certainly you are well familiar with it anyway. But what we absolutely should write about is the effect it made and the repercussions it produced. It could be said that CryptoKitties was to the Ethereum blockchain what Satoshi Dice had been to Bitcoin in the early days of crypto. At the peak of its popularity the game reportedly accounted for 20-25% of all Ethereum’s traffic that clogged the entire Ethereum network, with transaction fees skyrocketing. No wonder lots of people got pissed off with this turn of events. However, despite all the rage and fury, CryptoKitties amply demonstrated what a success means in the blockchain gaming field, how it looks and feels in practice. It is hard to estimate how much CryptoKitties contributed to cryptocurrency adoption. But given that a few hundred thousand people got involved in this game alone and many more with dozens of blockchain games that it has spawned, like Etherbots, Gods Unchained, The Six Dragons, etc, this indisputable triumph surely counts as a massive contribution by any definition or metric. Moreover, it also revealed the weaknesses of the contemporary blockchain solutions and what exactly should be done to overcome them. Evolution never goes linearly. In fact, it generally doesn’t go in curves, circles, or zig zags, either. It always moves along very diverse routes, directions and entire dimensions like plants and animals, viruses and bacteria, and, well, dinosaurs and mammals. The evolution of gaming in crypto space is no different. СryptoKitties and other games share essentially the same tech under the hood – building games on some advanced general-purpose blockchain such as Ethereum. But it is not the only front that crypto gaming has been advancing on, nor is it the only way to introduce gaming to cryptocurrencies, and vice versa. A more recent approach is based on designing either a standalone cryptocurrency or a token on a smart contract-enabled blockchain to be used across many games that support it as an in-game currency. As a result, gamers can enjoy true ownership of their in-game assets (the so-called non-fungible tokens, or NFTs), safe item trading outside the game, and cross-game compatibility. This path has been taken by such projects as Enjin (ENJ), GAME Credits (GAME), Decentraland (MANA), WAX (WAXP) and others, with their respective cryptocurrencies fueling a range of games. A somewhat different avenue is taken by Funfair (FUN), Chromia (CHR) and Lucid Sight, which are offering platforms that blockchain games can be built on. Thus, Lucid Sight’s Scarcity Engine is focused more on game creators than end users, that is to say, gamers, allowing developers to integrate blockchain into their games. It aims to obliterate the difference between blockchain-based games and traditional gaming platforms. Funfair, on the other hand, leans more toward creating custom-built blockchain casinos, with its FUN token as a casino “chip”. So much for no more gambling, huh. Our account of events would be incomplete if we didn’t mention yet another attempt to make use of Minecraft for the purpose of introducing cryptocurrencies to the gaming public. This time, a new Minecraft mod called SatoshiQuest has emerged. To participate in it, the gamers pay $1 in Bitcoin and get one in-game life. The pooled coins make up the loot, and the challenge is to find a minimum of 400 key fragments into which the keys to the Bitcoin wallet containing the prize are divided. And who said that evolution doesn’t loop?
Challenges and Future Prospects
The knockout popularity of СryptoKitties has clearly shown the scale of cryptocurrency mass adoption that blockchain gaming can trigger. As the game developers themselves put it, their “goal is to drive mainstream adoption of blockchain technology”. They believe that “the technology has immense benefits for consumers, but for those benefits to be realized, it needs to be experienced to be understood”. Speaking more broadly, as more people start using cryptocurrencies for gaming, they may eventually become interested in using their coins for purposes other than playing one game or another. With that said, it is now as clear that there are two main barriers on the way there. The first is the limitations of the blockchain tech itself that essentially limits blockchain gaming to NFTs, in-game currencies, streamlined payments, and similar stuff. This is mostly a technical challenge anyway, and we could realistically expect it to be solved sooner or later. The other issue is applicable to the gaming industry as a whole. People en masse would only play games that are truly engaging and immersive, technical issues aside. So the bottom line is that we need the convergence of these two vectors to make blockchain a dominating force in the gaming industry. First, the blockchain tech should have the capacity for running multiplayer games that major video game developers like Blizzard, Valve and Ubisoft produce, no trade-offs here. Then, we actually need the games like Warcraft, Counter-Strike or Far Cry that can be played on blockchain, to make it matter. Only after we get there, the gaming industry will likely become a primary driver behind cryptocurrency adoption. What are your thoughts on how gaming facilitates cryptocurrency adoption? Tell us your ideas in the comments below. And remember if you need to exchange your coins StealthEX is here for you. We provide a selection of more than 250 coins and constantly updating the list so that our customers will find a suitable option. Our service does not require registration and allows you to remain anonymous. Why don’t you check it out? Just go to StealthEX and follow these easy steps: ✔ Choose the pair and the amount for your exchange. For example BTC to ETH. ✔ Press the “Start exchange” button. ✔ Provide the recipient address to which the coins will be transferred. ✔ Move your cryptocurrency for the exchange. ✔ Receive your coins. Follow us on Medium, Twitter, Facebook, and Reddit to get StealthEX.io updates and the latest news about the crypto world. For all requests message us via [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]). The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. Original article was posted onhttps://stealthex.io/blog/2020/09/22/can-blockchain-gaming-drive-cryptocurrency-adoption/
PRICES EXPIRED. PM me if interested in anything and I'll provide you with an updated price. Proofity Proof with VIDEO!! Such an interesting week in PM land! Gold is 1% from breaking it's All Time High (ATH) price. It should soon go into price discovery mode as we explore uncharted territory. How high will it go!?!? Let's find out together! Silver had a massive run up and is taking a short breather (for how long?) before continuing it's climb to $50 (ATH) and... beyond? As long as the money printers go BRRRRRRR, precious metals should do great! Here's a huge sale! Something for everyone. Enjoy! Disclaimers: Prices are pretty firm unless you buy a ton. That being said, if you find a cheaper price at an online store, let me know and I'll see what I can do for you. I'll also consider giving a discount if you pay in Crypto Prices guaranteed till midnight PST 7/25/20 Payment Bitcoin or Crypto get priority! (include "Paying Crypto" in PM title to move to the front of the line). Else I'll accept Venmo, CashApp, Google Pay, Postal Money Order, or PayPalFF NO COMMENTS! New Buyers Must pay in Zelle, Postal Money Order, or Crypto Minimum Order: $100, If you are a bit under that's fine. Shipping is $5 for less than 8oz else $8 for Priority.
From 10000 to 10 Million: Coin Circle KOL Happy Shares the Road of Gold Mining in China
On July 27,2020, Bitcoin soared from US $9900 to US $11400, a 15% increase in a single day, opening the first round of global cryptocurrency market outbreak after the epidemic.Since then, different currencies have been soaring in turn every day.A few days ago, I attended a private gathering of cryptocurrency circle in Silicon Valley, and got to know a veteran of currency circle named XX.XX is a China expert and an early investor of TRX, OMG and EOS. It started from $10000 and now has a value of more than $10 million. It is called China bitbutcher in a small circle.The author and XX talked about a lot of dry goods, now sorted out to share with you, interested can add my telegraph group（https://0.plus/bpopaha）Discuss it together.The following is the account in XX’s own words. Firstly, you need to understand the market. Some people call me China Bitbutcher. In fact, there are many people who make more money than me in the Chinese market. Although the projects invested are different, they all have one thing in common, that is, they all have a better understanding of the Chinese market. At least you have to install a Wechat. You see, I have added many groups of Chinese investors to collect information and study their investment characteristics. For example, this expression pack is very representative. https://preview.redd.it/lf8vonlf5ft51.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7821b57d41984254f8fc6643a5f084565db8749 "show-hand" here is the transliteration of show hand, which means that you can bet all your cash on a single coin. If you only bet on one coin, you will have either heaven or hell.Whenever a KOL starts to shout for orders, the retail investors in the community will rush to get into the gold and shout the slogan of "show-hand". The lucky ones who get into the gold earlier will get several times or even dozens of times (or higher) return on investment. Similar to the "Beat Generation" born after World War II in the United States, today's young people in China are called "post-90s" and "post-00s". Although they don't have to worry about food and drink, their limited income is far behind the increase in urban house prices and living costs. Houses and cars are the necessary conditions for young Chinese men to marry their wives.As a result, these young people tend to be very aggressive in investment, and there are many people eager to make tens of thousands of dollars with thousands of dollars.At present, there are millions of investors in China's currency circle, which is equivalent to the total population of some small European countries. Behind this, there are tens of millions of stock investors who will turn to coin circle people at any time. Since the popularity of ICO in 2017, China has produced dozens of hundreds or even thousands of times projects such as Neo, TRX, ONT, etc., and tens of billions of dollars of funds have been taken out and deposited from the pockets of investors in the currency circle. At the same time, there are also a large number of gold miners (most of them are foreigners) who have absorbed a lot of money from China through ICO and obtained wealth freedom. Among them, EOS is a typical example. The financing time is as long as one year, and the financing scale is more than 2 billion US dollars, of which a large part is paid by Chinese young people. There is also a well-known KOL in China, who has been crazy about EOS, even calling out the slogan of "three waves of fighting to 1000 yuan (Note: 1000 yuan is equivalent to 143 US dollars, currently EOS is worth 3 dollars). However, such a crazy KOL still has the support of hundreds of thousands of fans. Fortunately, with so many fanatics, the EOS I held in the early stage could be safely and gradually shipped, with a comprehensive yield of 553%. It's not too much to say that it's collecting money on the ground. So if you take the same money and gamble with the gentlemen on Wall Street, you'd better take the same money to China’s currency circle market. By the way, there was also a big man in the currency circle in China who said that these retail investors were "idiot", "stupid people, lots of money, come quickly". I didn't believe it. However, at the end of 2017, I heard from my Chinese friends that I invested in a project called TRX. I only invested $5000, and finally I withdrew 100 times. 5000 US dollars turned into 500000 US dollars. Since then, I have fallen in love with this magic market. Secondly, we should see the situation clearly. A leader of China's democratic revolution once said a sentence that I like very much, which is called "the general trend of the world, the one who goes along will prosper, and the one who goes against will die." So before you pay, ask yourself a question: do you think the bull market has opened? Or is the bull market in the middle? This needs your own judgment, conform to the general trend to make money. In my opinion, at the present stage, two thirds of 2020 has passed. In the past eight months, the global epidemic broke out, the economy went down, the US stock market failed, the Olympic Games were postponed, and Bitcoin plummeted to 3800usdt.Under this undercurrent, hot money is irresistible, especially the savings of Chinese currency circle investors in the long bear market, which urgently needs an investment export. On the surface, this bull market is led by Ethereum, but in fact it is the result of a combination of multiple factors. One of the key points is to invest in customers' wallets. With Bitcoin starting on July 21, the current high level of 12000 or so, most of the mainstream currencies in the market have completed the round of rise. Meanwhile, the defi plate is extremely hot, and the future market will continue to be bullish. Judging the situation is the basic logic of our investment. If this does not hold up, there is no need to look down. Thirdly, choose potential currencies. If you also agree that the bull market will continue, then you should take advantage of this wave of heat, ambush some hot currencies in advance, and then wait for the market makers to stir up the market and plate, attract a large number of retail investors to follow suit, so as to easily make money in the market. At present, it is obvious that the market has entered the second typical stage: bitcoin trading horizontally and counterfeit currency rising in turn. Almost every day comes the news that the counterfeit currency of XX is about to soar, and then investors who build their positions ahead of time are beaming with joy to show their income map in the major communities. Please note that! At this time, most of the unqualified investors are following the trend and buying without their own opinions. It is true that some people have made a lot of money, but the risks have multiplied. Because while they are making money, they are also carrying sedan chairs for the makers. But a small number of "smart people" don't think so. They firmly believe that the safest way is to make money within their scope. One of the important ideas is to explore the underrated high-quality projects that have not yet started to rise in the bull market, complete the warehouse building at the low level, and get the early hundred times chips. Fourth, how to find a hundred times currency. As we all know, 100 times coin has the following characteristics: it has a perfect business model and pass card model, has its own application and ecology, and has a group of loyal users and community consensus. This is the fundamental reason why I found TRX, OMG, ONT and other currencies. There is an outstanding businessman named Jack Ma in China. He put forward a concept called "small is beautiful", which means that the best investment target is a project with small scale and high marginal profit. Just in the past two days, I downloaded an investment advisory app called coin bubble through China's wechat group, and also sent a token. I think it is small and beautiful according to my own definition. https://preview.redd.it/j4y0jxlg5ft51.png?width=415&format=png&auto=webp&s=14fb7e5786c8d310a2ad522aebfd25c09da1dc32 According to the official introduction, the coin bubble is a mobile terminal entrance for digital financial investors. It is committed to creating a rich, interesting and practical digital financial investment consultant ecosystem, helping new users of the digital financial investment circle to quickly integrate into the circle and culture, improve their investment skills and obtain better investment returns. The goal of currency bubble is to become the first stop for traditional financial investors to enter the digital financial world and the first entrance for incremental users and incremental funds. The concept is quite grand, but in a word, the team has made a consultant app for coin circle investment and built an active community of crypto asset enthusiasts. Through the mode of knowledge payment or commission, KOL at the head of the coin circle helps their fans to purchase crypto assets and derivatives with zero threshold, and obtain commission income from it. https://preview.redd.it/a0h0bu2h5ft51.png?width=831&format=png&auto=webp&s=36f26e4869ee1b063022a46767e5fdbd7a2081a4 Different from some projects on the market that often claim to be hundreds of thousands of users and start to issue money in the air stage, the money bubble has been done as a traditional Internet project from the beginning. The team itself is not short of money, and has not raised a lot of money in the initial stage. Instead, it only focuses on the perspective of resource exchange from the perspective of Genesis fund, alpha-coin fund and Continue Capital and other cryptocurrency capital parties symbolically took some start-up funds in order to better utilize the latter's extensive network resources in the currency circle. According to a friend who has a good relationship with the core team, the management of the currency bubble is extremely low-key, and rarely appears in front of the currency circle media. The team has always believed in the principle of product first, and has little interest in marketing. Just as soon as the app 1.0 version was launched, it caused a widespread sensation in the currency circle, and even was immediately plagiarized at pixel level by another well-known giant app two weeks later. But the team just said in the internal meeting, copy it, see whether you copy fast or we innovate fast. As a result, when app2.0 was released, the coin recommendation function was once again popular, absorbing countless powder, and it was still copied by several friends. However, this kind of plagiarism can not last for a long time, because the money bubble depends not only on the function innovation, but also on the community reputation. The Internet has such Matthew effect, and the head app is always strong. At present, the coin bubble has initially established a product matrix of currency recommendation, spot strategy, contract strategy and communication community. Investors, KOL, exchanges and project parties in the currency circle can take what they need and get the resources they want. At present, money bubble has been the first place in the investment advisory track by relying on natural flow and word-of-mouth propaganda. Many of the original friends who only relied on plagiarism have disappeared. At present, there are about 3000 KOLs with different levels in the currency bubble, which continuously release spot currency, contract strategy and potential currency on app. Online, hundreds of thousands of users can easily find KOL with high success rate and stable yield through the currency bubble platform to carry out documentary operation to obtain profits. Offline, the coin bubble has dozens of official wechat groups and hundreds of alliance groups, radiating millions of users in the currency circle. Currency bubble has become the first professional community in China's domestic currency circle. https://preview.redd.it/kjlb2ssh5ft51.png?width=165&format=png&auto=webp&s=442e8c22659fc29c1e0cb8e4e066795b9896cdbd Currency recommendation plate spot plate contract plate https://preview.redd.it/3kz5uu7i5ft51.png?width=183&format=png&auto=webp&s=95b6d1665dc61768679160fd2fb234cf55ad48c3 Money bubble online community currency bubble wechat community In order to better integrate and match the resources in the ecosystem, coin bubble launched token BPOP with the same name in a low-key manner in 19 years, but it has not been vigorously promoted. This is also in line with the team's low-key temperament of not lacking money, not promoting and only making products with heart. According to internal information, BPOP token will be used for the following purposes: First, you can use BPOP to subscribe to KOL's trading strategy. Previously, in order to comply in China, BPOP has been using French currency to settle Commission. However, the team may have considered the subsequent global promotion, and it is time to introduce ecological token for internal settlement. The good news is that the English version of coin bubble was launched in early September, which will better serve the global English speaking users in North America and Europe. At the same time, the project side also said that it would launch multi language versions such as Japanese version, Korean version and Latin version as soon as possible, so as to provide accurate investment advisory services for users in more regions of the world. Secondly, BPOP can be used to offset the service charge of the platform.This seems to be consistent with the strategy of the traditional exchange and the traditional investment consulting company, but in fact, the Commission is charged only when the strategy is profitable. This is totally different from the traditional one. It is a killing strategy created from the perspective of investors in the currency circle. As we know, the vast majority of the profits of exchanges and consulting companies come from the handling fees for ensuring the collection of goods during drought and flood, especially for futures contracts, which are extremely high. This small fee hides the ambition of the currency bubble to subvert the status quo of the industry. Now there is a popular word called dimension reduction strike. It is the Internet that kills physical stores, and takeaway is used to kill instant noodles. Is it possible that the person who kills the exchange is such a latecomer? Thirdly, BPOP can be used for position dividend. As mentioned above, the money bubble is set up according to the traditional Internet companies, and has its own stable source of income. Besides the platform Commission, a large part of it comes from the realization of traffic, that is, advertising revenue. Money bubble has served many star customers, such as OKEX, Bybit, MXC, famous project parties such as STPT, AKRO, DOS, ARPA, etc., and has reached hundreds of customers. Relying on its own flow advantages, the coin bubble provides accurate diversion and product promotion services for customers, matches high-quality investors in the currency circle for high-quality project parties and exchanges, and achieves a win-win situation. The subsequent position is equivalent to holding currency bubble stock, which will continue to enjoy the income and dividend of currency bubble. According to informed sources, BPOP will develop new products in combination with the current defi hot spots, and BPOP will also be the only value medium in the product ecology of defi, which means that the higher the demand for products, the stronger the price support of BPOP. - BPSwap BPSwap is an asset exchange platform, which can be used for token exchange of any public chain agreement. In the initial stage of the product, BPOP will be used as the main exchange target, i.e. eth / BPOP, TRX / BPOP and other transaction pairs. In the later stage, transactions between different currencies and flash exchange functions will be gradually opened; When a general investor subscribes to KOL's portfolio with BPOP, he / she can use BPSwap for trading exchange, and can also obtain income by providing transaction liquidity, which can not only quickly buy "wealth password" but also obtain additional income by using "wealth password"; The main functions of BPSwap are as follows: 1）Provide various platform data. Such as liquidity pool data, convertible currency pairs, exchange currency pair liquidity and transaction volume data; Exchange mechanism of transaction currency. In the initial stage, erc-20 or trc-20 will be opened to exchange currency pairs for BPOP transactions. Any user can view KOL recommended currency on BPOP platform and conduct transaction exchange directly; 2）Liquidity pool reward and new liquidity token. Any user can provide liquidity for different trading currency pairs, increase or remove assets in the liquidity pool. At the same time, the platform will issue a new liquidity token bpop-lp to reward users who provide liquidity for trading currency pairs. Bpop-lp can be exchanged with BPOP / USDT / eth; 3）Flash cash function. Quick exchange of small assets. In a word, BPSwap can make the users of currency bubble realize all kinds of "one-step" needs, from buying currency, to checking and recommending currency, to asset transaction and exchange, etc., so as to realize the closed-loop use of digital currency. As the only value medium of BPSwap, BPOP will be used by more and more users with the maturity of products, and the price will rise. Finally, BPOP will also realize the interesting functions of internal users such as reward and props purchase, which may be related to the next blockbuster version. I don't know the details, so I won't make a wild guess. The above is basically from the product, operation and technical aspects of the project analysis, but these alone are not enough, when we choose the investment target, we also need to carefully analyze the token situation, in order to draw a more accurate conclusion.These analyses are boring, but they are often critical. The reason is exactly the same when we analyze other currencies according to the method I said. The reason why bitcoin has become the favorite of investors is that it can not be issued more shares and has the characteristics of unlimited deflation. Although BPOP cannot be dug out, its deflation is more fierce and fierce. I can easily find out that the current circulation of BPOP is extremely limited after a large number of lock ups and multiple destruction of BPOP by combining the announcement issued by the currency bubble and the data on the chain. The currency distribution of BPOP is shown in the figure. The orange part is the market circulation volume, accounting for 10%.The other blue parts are those in lock / destroyed / to be destroyed. Currency bubble contract address: 0x0452aed878805514e28fb5bd0b56bef92176e32a As can be seen from the figure, the total amount of BPOP is 1 billion. Among them, the foundation has actively destroyed 500 million, ecological destruction has reached 100 million, team lock up 200 million, private placement has not been issued and destroyed by 42.4 million. The remaining cornerstone investment is 100 million and the market is 57.6 million. At present, there is only 157.6 million circulation in the market. According to the official announcement, the government has been using the business profits to buy back from the secondary market. At present, the government has successively bought back about 60 million, and the real circulation in the market is only about 97 million tokens. In addition, the project side's goal is to continue to buy back to 147.6 million and then destroy all the tokens, and all the tokens will be deflated to 10 million. According to the current real circulation of 97 million, the current CBX.ONE Its latest trading price is 0.005usdt, and its circulation market value is about 485000u. Compared with its current user volume and business volume, it is in a seriously underestimated state, and there is a huge space for imagination in the future. At present, the price is at a historical low price, which conforms to all my definitions of small and beautiful. To sum up, BPOP meets all the characteristics of this bull market - The business model, application and ecology are complete, and a large number of landing products are used by users; - The market value of project token is small, but the project investment institutions are strong; - The project team has deep experience in the blockchain industry and is keen on doing practical things. - The direction of the project is in line with the hot spots of the current bull market. There is a well-known saying in China's retail circle, "hold on, the team is working." On the one hand, it means that the team only focuses on the products and does not care about the price performance of the secondary market; on the other hand, it means that the project team is really pushing the whole product forward and the price has strong support. However, as long as there are specific landing products and a large number of users use them, the currency price will naturally attract other hot money to come in and raise the price. After all, the secondary market is just a capital game, and the coin bubble project meets this condition. The products are developed in an orderly way, and the market value is still so small. It is very easy for BPOP to rise several times or dozens of times in this bull market. At present, BPOP passes can be found in the decentralized exchange uniswap (search BPOP or contract address: 0x0452aed878805514e28fb5bd0b56bef92176e32a) and the centralized exchange Dubai compliance exchange cbx.com Trading. Those who are interested can learn about it by themselves. Of course, before buying, you can also go to its official website（http://www.bpop.io）Download the app to experience it. By the way, I tried to recharge 1000 usdt, and now I have made more than 300 usdt. Of course, some secondary pages still have a lot of Chinese, which is a little difficult to watch. It is said that an optimized version of the English version will be released soon, and everyone can experience it at that time. Finally, I would like to remind you that although the money in China's currency circle is relatively easy to earn, it is also a high-risk investment variety. Before you enter this market, please be sure to follow the above-mentioned method to deeply understand the Chinese market and analyze the currency you like in detail. If you have any questions, please feel free to communicate with me.
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